First, let me offer an extended apology. I went a pitiful 8/13 instead of 8/12 last week, and I am truly sorry. With that out of the way, I’ll be looking to get back on track this week with a couple of easy picks. Of course, there are also a couple of reaches courtesy of my patented contrarianism, and potential homerism. Here are our Week 9 NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid.
Locks
Bills (-14.5) vs. Jaguars (+14.5)
Well, Buffalo didn’t look very good last week for a while against the 31st ranked Dolphins defense last week. The difference between Buffalo and Jacksonville is that the former ended up running away with the game, while the latter was blown out by Geno Smith and a mediocre Seattle defense. I don’t enjoy watching Trevor Lawrence struggle, but I have come to enjoy the Jaguars flounder for their series of terrible personnel decisions over the past few months. I’m not sure the game will be as one-sided as the line suggests, however, as double-digit lines are hard to cover.
Safe Bets
Browns (+2.5) vs. Bengals (-2.5)
The battle for Ohio. On one hand, Cincinnati just lost to Mike White, who had never started a game before last week. On the other, Odell Beckham Jr.’s father posted a video of Baker Mayfield missing his son wide open. I respect Baker Mayfield for playing with a torn labrum, but the Browns haven’t scored 20+ points in a month, and Chubb/Hunt are still out for the long-term.
Broncos (+10.0) vs. Cowboys (-10.0)
The Cowboys beat the Vikings, one of the harder teams on their schedule, with Cooper Rush at quarterback. If Dak Prescott was definitely playing on Sunday, this could easily be a lock. Nobody’s scared of a Broncos offense scoring that’s scored 20 points once in the last 4 weeks. Rush did that in literally his first week against one of the best pass rushes in the league. Chances are, the Cowboys are going to give me a lot of headaches over the next eight weeks.
Raiders (-3.0) vs. Giants (+3.0)
I almost want to root for the Giants because of what happened with Henry Ruggs over the weekend. Alas, putting money on any professional football team that plays in East Rutherford is a fool’s gambit. Meanwhile, the Raiders have had to navigate a lot over this season and have managed to go 5-2 (first place in the AFC North). Ironic that I thought Carr couldn’t keep with Mahomes and Herbert in the division. The Black and Silver have proved me wrong all season, and I’m sure they’d make me foolish if I bet against them again.
Patriots (-3.5) vs. Panthers (+3.5)
I bet that Bill Belichick would beat Justin Herbert in SoFi Stadium, so of course I’m going to bet that he has a plan for Sam Darnold/PJ Tucker. Even with McCaffrey potentially being activated off of IR, I’m uncertain how much he’ll even be utilized. Atlanta isn’t a great team, but at least Carolina won last week. Unfortunately, the Panthers can’t face the Falcons every week.
Falcons (+6.0) vs. Saints (-6.0)
Atlanta is perceived as a poverty team, but they’ve impressively only put up less than 25 points three times this year. Unfortunately, they haven’t beaten anyone noticeable halfway into the season. Meanwhile, the Saints are fresh off a victory over the reigning champions. Granted, Tampa was without Rob Gronkowski, Richard Sherman, and Antonio Brown. Nevertheless, only Sherman plays defense, and Winston put up 28 points (with an extra 7 courtesy of an ill-timed Brady pick 6).
Avoids
Titans (+7.5) vs. Rams (-7.5)
Titans are 6-2, but that was with Derrick Henry in the backfield. Meanwhile, Los Angeles just added Von Miller in hopes of winning a Super Bowl. With all possible respect to King Henry, teams don’t get to a 6-2 record JUST because of their halfback. This team has talent elsewhere. Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Kevin Byard, even the recently signed Adrian Peterson. It’ll be interesting to see how far Tannehill can carry this team on his arm, but one thing is for sure: I’ll definitely be starting Brown from hereon. I’m taking the Rams in a not particularly close match, as I don’t know how the Titans will look without Henry.
Packers (+7.5) vs. Chiefs (-7.5)
Aaron Rodgers and potentially Davante Adams are going to be out for the game. So, the starter will be Jordan Love. The funny thing? Due to how bad the Chiefs are at stopping the run, I’m still taking Love over Mahomes, since the latter hasn’t been able to compensate for his team’s deficiencies enough. In fact, Mahomes is part of the reason his team is where it is right now. The only question remaining is, what’s worse? The Packers pass defense, or the Chiefs defensive line?
Tank Bowl
Texans (1-7) vs. Dolphins (1-7)
Miami: Philadelphia owns Miami’s first-round pick (don’t I know it). Miami somewhat did themselves a favor with their trade, as 2023’s crop of QBs is better, and they saved themselves the chance of reaching on quarterback that’s just okay.
Texans: Both of these teams have shown that they’re going to be looking at a QB in the near future. Draft experts project that no QB is going to be taken in the top 10. Houston has the #2 overall pick, as of now. So, with that kind of draft capital, what is a team to (Thibi)do? Assuming Kayvon doesn’t fall past Detroit, and Nick Caserio decides to move on from Davis Mills (who has looked good the past few weeks), the most logical pick is Matt Corral. Another Birds Blitz writer, Noah Berger, is working on evaluating prospects, and Corral will likely be the first QB taken based on the film he’s watched. If QB isn’t the path Houston goes, however, I’d take Derek Stingley from LSU. Houston has needs pretty much everywhere, Stingley is the second-best college prospect behind Thibodeaux, and LSU is considered DBU (basically, any defensive backs taken out of there end up being good in the NFL).
Other Picks
Jets vs. Colts: Colts
I would HOPE that Wentz is able to beat a 2-6 team that is bringing out a quarterback making his first career start. And if not, Wentz had better hope that this is a Drew Bledsoe-Tom Brady type situation where White goes onto win six Super Bowls. I’m not sure how many other Eagles fans are like this, but I’ve defended Wentz even in his time in Indianapolis. If he loses this game, not only will he be rightly ridiculed by the sports world, but I have three friends that I KNOW will give me an earful. Spoilers: all three think Wentz is overrated, and one is even a Jets fan himself.
Vikings vs. Ravens: Ravens
“There’s no shame in losing to the Cowboys” is a sentence that hurts to say, but it’s true. There IS shame in losing to Cooper Rush, but the Ravens lost to Mike White, so… even? I guess this comes down to who I have more faith in, and that’d have to be Baltimore. Cousins is underrated, but Lamar is legitimately one of the best QBs in the league. Harbaugh has his team 5-2 despite having 15 players on IR, meanwhile Mike Zimmer might be gone after this year or next.
Chargers vs. Eagles: Eagles
Homerism? Delusion after beating the worst team in the league? Or acknowledging that the Chargers have one of the worst running defenses in the league, and that was before Melvin Ingram was traded to the Chiefs. Brandon Staley is probably going to be smart enough to stack the box and force Hurts to throw downfield, but if there’s one OL I trust to clear running lanes, it’s ours. I normally get three or four wrong, but me picking the Eagles here means one thing: I’m ready to get hurt again.
Cardinals vs. 49ers: Cardinals
Let me qualify that I’m only taking the Cardinals if Murray plays. I don’t even know who Arizona’s backup is. With that said, San Francisco is not that good this year. Interestingly, these two teams faced off earlier this year, but Arizona only won by seven points. With the severity of Murray’s injury uncertain, it’s hard to say certifiably which team is superior, as well as whether or not Trey Lance is superior to Jimmy Garopollo at this stage of their careers. Murray is an MVP candidate this year, but it feels like San Francisco could pull off the upset. Nevertheless, I’m going to take the safe pick and go Arizona.
Bears vs. Steelers: Bears
Alright, I’m on the Justin Fields bandwagon after last week, especially if Matt Nagy is out with COVID again. Impressively, Mike TOmlin has never had a losing season, but Rothelisberger is one season away from retirement. The main complaint against Justin Fields is that he’s not ready for full-time action. Well, he looked ready last week, even though he lost. Meanwhile, it’s hard to trust the Steelers this year. I feel good about Chicago winning if Fields uses his mobility again.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
