Week 15: NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid

Ladies and gentlemen, we’re in the endgame. Half of the league is floating around .500 with three games left. This is possibly the most important week of the season for a number of teams, as a loss this week would be a dagger to anyone hoping to make the playoffs. For half the league, one game determines everything. Here are your Week 15 NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid

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Locks

Panthers (+10.5) vs. Bills (-10.5): Bills

The Bills haven’t been anything special this year, but the Panthers have unfortunately dealt with a steady collapse after a solid three-game stretch. Cam Newton gave a moment’s glimpse of hope before returning to post-COVID-19 form. Now, Carolina is in a three-QB carousel between Newton, recently-activated Sam Darnold, and P.J. Walker. There’s quite a bit that’s I don’t trust about Carolina, and unless Josh Allen plays like he’s playing in 55-MPH winds, the Bills should have relatively little trouble.Respect to Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers defense, but the Panthers offense is a mess.

Packers (-5.5) vs. Ravens (+5.5): Packers

To demonstrate how impermanent situations are in the NFL, the Packers defense is actually respectable, a former unanimous MVP has put up under 20 points in three of his last four, and,  well, Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers. A brief discussion with Ravens fans will reveal the source of their woes is Greg Roman (along with a CVS receipt of injuries on both sides of the ball). Rodgers proved earlier this year that he can beat one of the best teams in the league even down his best receivers. Baltimore is two of their last four, and both of those wins were ugly. For anyone outside of the Flock, Baltimore is a tough team to bet on right now.

Cardinals (-12.5) vs. Lions (+12.5): Cardinals

Deandre Hopkins or not, there’s a clear divide between these two teams. Arizona is in contention for the #1 seed. Detroit is in contention for the #1 pick. Granted, upsets happen every week, but this would be a massive shocker if Detroit gained their second win of the SEASON against a team that has established itself as one of the best this season.

Safe Bets

Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Giants (+10.5): Cowboys

Should the Cowboys be a lock against a sub-par NFL team? Yes. The problem with that is that Dak Prescott hasn’t been playing well in the past five weeks, and the driving force of Dallas’ recent success has been their defensive play. With that said, the Cowboys defense will likely be facing Mike Glennon if Daniel Jones is unavailable (for all the difference that makes).

Seahawks (+5.5) vs. Rams (-5.5): Rams

Russell Wilson hasn’t been what he once was, and the Seahawks are finally bearing penance for their years of questionable drafting. Unfortunately, that means someone had to pay, and that someone  ended up being a man who carried the franchise on his shoulders for years, only missing the playoffs once in his career. Meanwhile, the Rams are fresh off a win against arguably the hottest team in football and are in contention for the #1 seed themselves. This is again not a lock because divisional games are unpredictable, but if the Rams can beat Russell Wilson in the 2020 playoffs with John Wolford, Lord knows what Sean McVay is going to do with a freshly liberated Matthew Stafford.

Titans (-1.0) vs. Steelers (+1.0): Steelers

Is Ryan Tannehill a great QB that has navigated his team to first in the AFC North, and the #1 seed in the whole AFC for a brief while? Or was he a beneficiary of an all-world running back that took pressure off his shoulders by setting up play action on a regular basis? Considering Tannehill is putting up numbers similar to 2020 Carson Wentz (the season Wentz was mercilessly reamed and criticized for his play, among other things), I’ll go with the latter. I once considered Tannehill a top 10 QB. Sadly, this assessment has changed with him throwing 3 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and having a passer rating above 90 only once in Derrick Henry’s five-week absence. Even in a season where people are calling Ben Roethlisberger cooked, he’s thrown for 19 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and four 100+ passer ratings in the same five-week span. Compile that with Roethlisberger’s skill players actually being healthy, and this game will likely be less close than I originally believed.

Avoid

Chiefs (-3.0) vs. Chargers (+3.0)

Two young men that have established themselves as a pair of the best young QBs in the league. Two teams who have struggled with offensive inconsistency this year and have at points been saved by defense. Two teams that surprisingly have more in common than might immediately be clear. It’ll be close, but I’ll pick Chiefs here because Melvin Ingram is returning to play his old team, and I anticipate he’s motivated to have a big game, especially with Chris Jones possibly being out due to COVID-19.

Tank Bowl

Texans (2-11) vs. Jaguars (2-11)

Texans: Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux. Derek Stingley Jr. Essentially, whichever player Detroit doesn’t take should be drafted, in that order

Jaguars: Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux. Derek Stingley Jr. Jacksonville is pick #3 after Houston and Detroit, so Jacksonville essentially gets whatever pick is left of the three. 29 other teams in the NFL would kill to have one of these guys on their team, so I think that each one will be happy with whoever they end up drafting.

Other Picks

Jets (-9.5) vs. Dolphins (+9.5): Dolphins

Somehow, some way, Miami has risen from the dead, winning five of their last six, giving themselves an outside chance at the playoffs. Since Miami has a shot to make the play-in game, I expect a hard-fought contest. New York isn’t going to lie down either, however, as the Jets have a chance to play spoiler. Miami isn’t trustworthy enough for me to say that they will undoubtedly 100% win this game, but they have somehow become the likeable underdog, a feeling Eagles fans should know very well. Unfortunately, an improved pick for the Eagles is contingent on the Dolphins’ failure, so I’m going to have to pick against the likable upstart this time around.

Falcons (-9.5) vs. 49ers (+9.5): 49ers

I said the Falcons would have six wins at the start of the season. Atlanta currently has six wins and I don’t think they’re dead yet. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Falcons will win this week, per se. San Francisco only has to contain Cordarelle Patterson, Atlanta has to deal with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. Count Patterson as a WR and RB if need be, Atlanta’s weapons still haven’t been equal to San Francisco’s since Calvin Ridley stepped away to focus on his mental health (which I 100% respect).

Vikings (-5.5) vs. Bears (+5.5): Vikings

I respected the Bears early on. Maybe because I didn’t know what to make of them, maybe because I was looking forward to seeing Justin Fields play. Either way, Chicago hasn’t impressed me in 14 weeks as much as Dalvin Cook did against Pittsburgh in week 14. Arm injury and all, Dalvin Cook came out and put up 205 yards and two touchdowns with a freshly dislocated shoulder. Again, there seem to be a lot of division games this week, which makes for a tricky minefield, especially since two or three equate to playing spoilers. Sadly, I must tether myself to my better senses and pick who I see as the better team, even if it costs me.

Saints (-11.0) vs. Buccaneers (+11.0): Buccaneers

The Saints pulled away with a win against the Bucs earlier in the season, but I’m sensing a switch in fortune for Brady. Taysom Hill will be the starting QB this time around, and if Eagles fans think arguably having a running back as a QB is bad, the Saints essentially have a fullback as their starting Quarterback. Even the best QBs and teams in the NFL have trouble with the Bucs. Backup QBs tend to be Brady’s Kryptonite, so maybe Taysom can be the curveball that the Saints need, but Hill can’t throw, and I fully expect Tampa to take advantage of that.

Bengals (+2.5) vs. Broncos (-2.5): Bengals

Teddy Bridgewater makes this team very very difficult to assess. Offensive weapons (Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy), a defense second in point allowed, a respected head coach (Vic Fangio, defensively at least), and yet they’re only a wild card team. I’ve argued with my friend about wins being a QB stat, but with a franchise QB, this is a 10+ win team. Heck, the Broncos beat the Chiefs if Bridgewater doesn’t throw two picks. Weirdly, the Broncos do have quality wins against the Cowboys and Chargers. I’m going to take the Bengals because a cursory Google search says that the Broncos haven’t put two solid weeks together since weeks 2 and 3. Denver scored 30 last week, so they’re in line to put up 15.

Raiders (-1.0) vs. Browns (+1.0): Raiders

Derek Carr, you’d better win this. I know that the team has been steadily falling apart throughout the season, and the Raiders offense has been putrid, but the Browns aren’t exactly all there, either. Kevin Stefanski and Baker Mayfield are out with COVID, Kareem Hunt is sidelined with injury, Odell Beckham Jr. was traded a few weeks ago, and even Case Keenum couldn’t escape. The Browns are now down to *checks notes* 49ers/Eagles legend Nick Mullens. As bad as the Raiders have been in the past month, there’s no excuse for losing this game.

Patriots (-2.5) vs. Colts (+2.5): Patriots

Carson, you’re my guy, but Belichick is the Boogeyman, the #1 seed in the AFC with a rookie quarterback, and your record against winning teams this year is not pretty. This year, Wentz is being rebuilt like the Six-Million-Dollar Man, and while he’s playing like a borderline pro bowl QB (not counting passing yards, which are an overrated stat anyways. Future article idea?), one must wonder if it’ll be enough. I’m going to be honest, I think the Colts take an early double-digit lead, the same as they’ve done nearly every week since week 4. If Frank Reich keeps running the ball with the lead, they win. If Frank Reich stops running the ball, Wentz makes a mistake at some point and they lose.

WFT (+9.5) vs. Eagles (-9.5): Eagles

The Eagles are coming into this game with questions at QB. The Football team is coming into this game with questions at, well, everywhere, including QB. This a game that the Eagles not only have to win, but should win. A lot of Hurts’ mistakes are a source of panicking in the pocket and making ill-informed decisions. If Hurts calms down and trusts his line and skill players (except Jalen Reagor), the Eagles should be able to win. If the Eagles can’t win this game, then they don’t even deserve to make the playoffs.