Happy new year, everyone! I don’t know what’s crazier: 2021 being over already or the NFL season already being in week 17. If it were any other year, this would be the last game of the season (not including playoffs). Fortunately, not accounting for inflation, money is money no matter what year it is. Given that the season is indeed winding down, I’m going to put as much effort as possible into making sure I get a perfect scorecard, even more than weeks prior.
Locks
Jaguars (+16.5) vs. Patriots (-16.5): Patriots
The Jaguars are not in the best spot right now. Aside from one anomalous 2017 season, Jacksonville has had a losing record every season for the past 10 years. Apologies to Duval County, but this season seems to be more of the same. Urban Meyer flamed out, the supposed greatest QB prospect since Andrew Luck in on track to being broken, and, as a sign of how this season has gone, JAX lost to the at-the-time 3-11 Jets. The sad thing is, if given the chance again, I doubt anyone would take Mac Jones over Lawrence. Jones was simply set up for success much better. While there’s more parity in the NFL than arguably any other league (which is part of what makes it so great), I’m not brave enough to play the contrarian this time around. Pats by 1000.
Vikings (+12.5) vs. Packers (-12.5): Packers
This was an “other pick” earlier in the week when I started writing this article. Cousins is underrated enough to make the game interesting, which is why I kept this off the “safe picks.” Heck, Cousins even beat Rodgers earlier this year. Whatever intrigue this game might have had was removed from the equation, however, when Cousins went on the COVID-19/Reserve list. Up next is Sean Mannion. I despise bad football, but the Eagles need Minnesota to lose for a shot at the playoffs, so I’ll take this blessing and run.
Safe Bets
Raiders (+8.0) vs. Colts (-8.0): Colts
It’s bad enough that the Raiders have the 24th ranked run defense, but the Raiders offense has broken the 20-point mark once in a month. Even with Wentz potentially out (update: he’s playing), even with the injuries and holes on the Colts’ offensive line, Indianapolis still has the benefit of not only having the most pro bowlers in the league, but also an MVP-caliber running back. I like Carr, but it takes a village to move a mountain, and the Raiders offense mostly consists of him, Jacobs, and Renfrow. PFF ranked the Las Vegas offensive line 29th after week 15, Darren Waller is injured, and Henry Ruggs decided it would be a good idea to go 156 MPH on the freeway while under the influence of alcohol. Whether you empathize with the Raiders or not is a different story. In my opinion, Las Vegas is simply outclassed, and that’s what this article is about. Going into week 17, the closest that Carr has to difference makers is Hunter Renfrow and Josh Jacobs. The least amount of points Indy has scored over the past month is 22. The MOST points scored by the Raiders in December was 17.
Falcons (+14.5) vs. Bills (-14.5): Bills
I’ll be honest, I wasn’t entirely sure how to say whether each team was better than one another or not. After seeing how many points Buffalo scored in the past four weeks (ignoring the outlier game where there were 55 MPH winds), however, and juxtaposing it against Atlanta by the same metric, the answer is simpler than I originally thought. Atlanta has 79 points since week 13, Buffalo has 101. A.J. Terrell vs. Stefon Diggs should be fun, though.
Broncos (+7.5) vs. Chargers (-7.5): Chargers
Oh boy, a divisional rivalry! These never have any upsets or unexpected twists (he said sarcastically). Heck, the Chargers are supposed to be better than the Broncos, but I thought that last time the two faced off, as well. The question now is whether I respect historical trends or adhere to my better senses and pick Los Angeles? I’ll take a risk and say that Justin Herbert delivers a win over Drew Lock. Granted, that doesn’t sound like a hot take, but Denver has historically owned LA recently. I can only hope that this trend changes, if only for this game. Given that Lock is starting and Denver is down to its practice squad wide receivers, if LA does indeed lose, I’m going to actually have to ask myself if there’s something wrong with them.
Rams (-6.5) vs. Ravens (+6.5): Rams
Perhaps due to the uncertainty surrounding the QB position, I thought that the Ravens offense struggled in recent weeks. In reality, Baltimore scored 30 and 21 in the two games that Lamar Jackson missed. Jackson will theoretically be returning this week, but his stats suggest that he’s regressed as a passer, throwing for 16 TDs and 13 interceptions. If Jackson can’t run, he can’t win. This is just one reason to pick against the Ravens this week. Even if Jackson deserved his pro bowl nod this year, he’s still playing with a practice squad secondary, and his offensive coordinator has earned the ire of the Baltimore faithful. There are quite a few issues with the Ravens that need to be ironed out. Meanwhile, the Rams are a Super Bowl team if Stafford doesn’t throw three interceptions (like he did last week). Even Stafford’s worst game of the season, however, the Rams scored 30.
Buccaneers (-13.5) vs. Jets (+13.5): Buccaneers
This game should be a wrap. Admittedly, Brady’s going to be without quite a few big players on offense: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette on offense. Meanwhile, Shaq Barrett’s absence will have a big impact on a defense that already relies heavily on pressuring the QB. With how many players Brady is missing, he can only count his lucky stars that he’s playing a team he owned for two decades. It also helps that Carolina proved Brady can still blow out bad teams, even without an all-star cast. The deficiencies of the Jets can be dressed up as them “rebuilding,” but I’m unsure just how much Saleh and Wilson have proven themselves. Even if the teams were close, I’d take the Bucs because, if nothing else, I trust Brady’s late-game decisions more. In fact, that’s how he’s made his bread for the past twenty years.
Avoids
Panthers (+6.5) vs. Saints (-6.5): Saints
If this isn’t a Tank Bowl, it’s real close. Carolina is long removed from the playoff picture, and if New Orleans loses this game, they could both be sitting in the same position at this point next week. The question then becomes if I trust Sam Darnold to play spoiler against a Saints defense ranked 4th by most metrics. No. By all accounts, this is going to be an ugly game. The deciding factor is going to be that the Saints have a top 5 defense. but Taysom Hill has the fortune of having a top tier defense.
Texans (+12.5) vs. 49ers (-12.5): 49ers
Honestly, I want to be brave here and say that the Texans will continue their unexpectedly solid play over the past few weeks. Trey Lance is also likely going to start, and he’s an unknown variable! Unfortunately, I’m a bit of a coward that saw the point spread for BettingPros and shrank into a tiny shell. I think this is the first time this year my convictions have waivered based on the point spread, and if I end up being wrong, I’m scapegoating my bookie! I kid, I kid (mostly)!
Tank Bowls
Lions (2-12-1) vs. Seahawks (5-10)
Lions: Lions are in Hutchinson/Thibodeaux territory. Whatever player Jacksonville doesn’t take will likely be taken by Detroit.
Seahawks: N/A
Giants (4-11) vs. Bears (5-10)
Giants: The Giants are currently projected to pick fifth and eighth. The first pick is easy: Evan Neal. I’ve seen other people, including a Giants blog, mock Neal to New York. The question now is what to do with pick #2 in round one. I like GiantsWire’s idea of double dipping on the offensive line, considering PFF ranked their o-line 28th in the league post week 15.
Bears: N/A
Other Picks
Chiefs (-4.0) vs. Bengals (+4.0): Chiefs
I don’t know where this came from or when this began, but the Chiefs quietly developed a solid defense. Kansas City’s defense is 25th in yards allowed, but top five in points. Burrow had an insanely impressive game last week, but as any Ravens fan will tell you, Baltimore was down to its third-stringers. Before last week, the most points scored by Cincinnati in December was 23. The least amount of points scored by Kansas City in December was 22 (against a defense that is by most metrics a top 2 defense in the league). Granted, a lot of those points came from Teddy Bridgewater coughing up early Christmas presents, but in a way, that’s a testament to the team built by Brett Veach. Similar to the Cowboys, good teams find a way to win games, even when one area of the roster underperforms. Speaking of the NFC East’s proverbial Devil, however…
Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Cowboys (-6.5): Cowboys
Sigh. The Cowboys really might be the #1 seed really soon. The Cowboys defense has been generating turnovers at an elite level over the past few months. In fact, it’s even been carrying a struggling offense. I know Washington isn’t a Super Bowl competitor or anything (despite what I thought before the season began), but scoring 56 points against an NFL team is very rare, and the Cardinals have lost five of eight. This losing streak includes one against the Lions. To recycle the rhetoric I used to describe the Chiefs, slightly tweaking the wording to avoid repeating myself, well-made teams manage to win close games. It’s very important for a team to play their best football in December/January, and even February if they make it that far. Dallas has sadly had the fortune of being one of those teams. My fantasy team is thankful, but every other part of me wishes they weren’t.
Browns (-3.5) vs. Steelers (+3.5): Steelers
The offenses of these two teams have actually performed pretty similarly over the last month. In this case, the deciding factor for me is how each team performed against other defenses. In December, Pittsburgh’s most impressive performance was scoring 2 points against the Ravens. In my opinion, this is going to be a one-score game late. This will be decided by Mayfield making a late-game mistake or Rothelisberger driving his team into field goal range. One way or another, I see Mayfield and the Browns finding a way to lose this game.
Eagles (-4.5) vs. WFT (+4.5): Eagles
Me going to bat for the Eagles recently isn’t baseless homerism, I swear. Rather, it’s more so an observation of trends in recent weeks that suggests that Washington is on a downward spiral. The defense, the supposedly elite part of the team (an opinion exclusive to preseason predictions and NFL fans who haven’t updated their beliefs since) is falling apart at the seams. Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen fought each other on the sideline, and in the aftermath, the former deleted his WFT-related posts on Instagram. Meanwhile, the offense has put up 20 points in a month. As long as the Eagles don’t give the opponent three balls away against a divisional opponent again, this should be a win.
Dolphins (+3.0) vs. Titans (-3.0): Dolphins
This is easily the most difficult opponent the Dolphins have faced in two months. Tannehill hasn’t had a good year, throwing for 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. In fact, Tua has even ended up having a better year, throwing 15 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Looking at last game, as well, Miami ended up doing decent against a solid Saints defense. Meanwhile, Tannehill only beat the 49ers because Garoppolo threw two interceptions.
Subscribe to our posts and bookmark these feeds:
* * *
Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
