Last week was not my finest hour. As I mentioned on Twitter, negative picks make me reevaluate how I view teams. Ideally, we know who’s hot and who’s not by week 6. Here’s to hoping for a more productive output than last week.
Locks
Eagles-Jets: Eagles (-6.5)
I’m not going to mention the Eagles’ record against the Jets. Putting it in locks alone is flirting with jinxing as is, which I’d like to circumvent if at all possible. That said, I like Philadelphia’s strengths going into this matchup. New York’s offensive line was shaky as is, and that was before Alijah Vera-Tucker tore his Achilles. Garret Wilson is going to be a big problem, but that’s only if the other Wilson can get him the ball (let alone have time to). By all means, respect the pass to avoid getting embarrassed early, but I’d be shocked if Philly didn’t force the Jets into making a costly mistake or two.
Dolphins-Panthers: Dolphins (-14.0)
Meanwhile, the Panthers need to pray on their lucky stars they can keep pace with an offense that’s been nigh unstoppable over the past five weeks. Perhaps if they ask nicely, Miami could give them one of the two WR1s they have on their team. I’m not 100% on what Carolina’s plan for WR1 is in the future. Perhaps they’re gunning for Marvin Harrison Jr in 2024. This isn’t a Tank Bowl video, but with Carolina the only winless team left, one that has a 30-year-old Adam Thielen as their WR1, it seems like an obvious choice, regardless.
Giants-Bills: Bills (-15.0)
Buffalo looked more mortal last week, Giants have looked mortal all week. Buffalo scored 20 on a bad week, the Giants haven’t scored 20 since week 2. What’s more, Allen has the opportunity to create distance between the narrative that he was a Daboll product. It helps that Allen has support around him and is facing a bottom-five team in the NFL, not even accounting that Daniel Jones might not be able to participate.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Safe Bets
49ers-Browns: 49ers (-9.5)
There are perhaps a couple of teams in the NFL that can beat the Niners, and the Browns are too inconsistent on offense to be one of them. Perhaps they’ll pull a Buffalo this week, but San Francisco is yet to score under 30 points. Cleveland’s high for the season is 27. It also doesn’t help that the Browns will be short the man they gave an albatross contract in 2022. While his morality is certainly questionable, I doubt people unironically believe PJ Walker is a better alternative.
Saints-Texans: Texans (+1.5)
I was very complimentary of Carr’s leadership in 2021, to the point where I said he had a more impressive season than Mahomes. I like to look at the circumstances around players, the drama and support that inhibits their success. All that to say, there is no outstanding controversy to save Carr from how mediocre the Saints have looked. No drama, no lack of support, just an offense. The offense has given up 60 points in two games, but that doesn’t excuse New Orleans not breaking 20 points this season.
Tank Bowl
Vikings-Bears: Bears (+3.0)
Justin Jefferson is out for the next four games? Congratulations, Minnesota, you’re about to do a lot of winning by losing. The bad news is the next four weeks are going to be rough (some of it is going to be due to division rivals). The good news is a bright and shiny QB1 sits on the horizon for 2024. Michael Penix, Drake Maye, maybe even Caleb Williams could be donning the purple and gold this time next year. As for Chicago fans, if Fields keeps playing like he did last week, you already have your QB1. Protect him with a blindside blocker. My solution is the same as it was last for the Bengals week: Joe Alt, JC Latham, and Olomuyiwa Fashanu.
Other Picks
Ravens-Titans: Titans (+5.5)
The good news is Baltimore’s going to want to make a statement after last week. The bad news is the reason they’re looking to make a statement is because they dropped nine passes. Compile that with the injuries that have haunted Baltimore all season, and you have a toxic hemlock that makes them hard to pick. Baltimore really is one of those teams where it feels like QB vs. The World.
Commanders-Falcons: Falcons (-1.5)
The Commanders are the NFL equivalent to Jekyll and Hyde. It’s nearly impossible to know which version of them you’re going to get. It’s become pretty certain as of late that Emmanuel Forbes (or whoever replaces him) is going to get picked on. Both teams are the same in the sense that they have a good dose of talent that it all falls on the coach to use properly. Is Sam Howell better than Desmond Ridder? Depends on the day. Is the Commanders’ defense durable? 30 points given up in 4 of 5 games says no.
Seahawks-Bengals: Bengals (-3.0)
I said a couple of weeks ago that people were speculating that the Bengals were starting to come alive. There were a couple of QBs around the league that were dealing with injuries that were visibly inhibiting their play. Burrow contested with a calf injury early in the season. If last week’s any indication, Cincinnati is back to who we think they are.
Patriots-Raiders: Raiders (-3.0)
Copy-paste what I said last week about the Patriots onto this matchup. Vegas isn’t a fearsome opponent, but they at least have talent at the RB/WR position (to put it lightly) and stability at QB. New England only has one of those things (half of one of those things, in fact). I like Rhamondre Stevenson, but he can’t carry an entire offense on his lonesome.
Cardinals-Rams: Rams (-7.0)
The Football Gods give, the Football Gods taketh away. Cooper Kupp’s back as of last week, James Conner is inactive as of this week. I know that one’s a Ram and one’s a Cardinal, but mentioning both was noteworthy because each significantly impacts the other’s odds of success. Jim Irsay learned the hard way how important a good RB is for a team’s success, especially when that team lacks a proven franchise QB. For all we know, Dobbs merely had a brief Cinderella run to open the season.
Colts-Jaguars: Jaguars (-4.0)
The Football Gods give, the Football Gods, well, you know. Colts fans, rejoice! Jonathan Taylor made his return last week! The only complication is that Anthony Richardson is going to be missing time, so it’s difficult to know how the offense is going to function. It’s fun and funny to imagine Gardner Minshew coming into Duval and beating his old team, but without Richardson, that’s a bit of an ask.
Lions-Buccaneers: Buccaneers (+3.0)
The Lions are coming into this contest limping. Amon Ra St. Brown is injured, Jahmyr Gibbs is injured. What does that leave Detroit with? Josh Reynolds and David Montgomery? I’m not well acquainted with Tampa’s running back situation, but I know who Mike Evans and Charis Godwin are. Both teams are well put together this year, but there’s one significant difference: only one is well-assembled and healthy.
Cowboys-Chargers: Chargers (+1.5)
This is a question of who I can trust less: the Chargers defense or Cowboys offense? Despite how much LA’s defense is rightly derided, they’ve only given up 30 points once. Dallas averages more points per game, but many of those are contingent on the defense, causing mistakes from Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, and Zach Wilson. In the two games where they haven’t forced turnovers, they scored 10 and 16, respectively.
Subscribe to our posts and bookmark these feeds:
* * *
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
