It’s been a rough past couple of weeks picks-wise. 7 or 8 correct picks per week isn’t gonna cut it. If I was a QB, that’d be a 50% completion rate. Anything under 65% is unacceptable, so I had to break out the roster comparisons. Fingers crossed this modified take on an old format pays dividends.
Locks
Chiefs-Broncos: Chiefs (-7.0)
Chiefs Advantages: QB, RB, OL, DL, DB, Coaching
Broncos Advantages: Home Field
The Chiefs are missing a true WR1 (unless we count Kelce), the Broncos are missing just about everything. I’ve adjusted my stance on them being one year away from contention (partially due to peer pressure from a friend of mine), but in a Tiermaker ranking of NFL teams, I listed Denver as a team that needs to go Scorched Earth. That’s difficult to do with the state of Russell Wilson’s contract, but it speaks to the state of the two franchises.
Texans-Panthers: Texans (-3.5)
Texans Advantages: QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, Coaching
Panthers Advantages: DBs
I wish this game wasn’t at 1:00, or else I’d definitely be very interested to see the first matchup of Bryce Young and CJ Stroud’s careers. QBs notwithstanding, I’ve been very impressed with how Houston’s moves have played over the past two years. Tank Dell; Nico Collins; Will Anderson; and CJ Stroud, particularly have emerged as stalwarts. Carolina is moreso in a state where they’re excited for what they could be than what they are.
Safe Picks
Jaguars-Steelers: Jaguars (-2.0)
Jaguars Advantages: QB, RB, WR, OL
Steelers Advantages: DL, DB, Home Field
This one might be close. 24-21 close. Jacksonville has an inconsistent offense, but a defense ranked 31st in passing yards. Pittsburgh is ranked 25th, however, so the question is who I trust more in a shootout. In that regard, I say Lawrence, but I trust the Steelers are going to get a couple of turnovers that are going to make the game much closer than it should have been.
Ravens-Cardinals: Ravens (-9.5)
Ravens Advantages: QB, WR, OL, DL, DB
Cardinals Advantages: Home Field
Lamar and Mahomes are probably the two QBs in the league that are doing the most important job considering the WRs they have to throw to. After Andrews, the best that he has to throw to is a rookie. Fortunately, they’re facing a team with the 23rd ranked pass defense and 25th ranked rush defense. On the offensive side, James Conner is on IR, and the Cardinals run game went with it.
Raiders-Lions: Lions (-8.0)
Raiders Advantages: RB, WR, DB
Lions Advantages: QB, TE, OL, DL, Coaching, Home Field
I’d probably give the RB position to Detroit if Montgomery was healthy, given two good running backs is more valuable than having one great one. That doesn’t change the Raiders give up the 8th most rushing yards in the league. That’s not even accounting for the discrepancy in coaching. Davante Adams is one of the top NFL WRs in the league, but who’s throwing him the football?
Patriots-Dolphins: Dolphins (-8.5)
Dolphins Advantages: QB, RB, WR, Home Field, Coaching
Patriots Advantages: OL, DL, DB
Miami, mi amo, my Super Bowl pick for the AFC. Their lack of a signature win reared its ugly head (or beautiful, based on your perspective) last week. All the talent in the world, but nobody to cover Tua’s six. The good news is New England is a team they should beat. The bad news is beating the Patriots won’t gain Miami any respect. Still, as a friend of mine reminded me after picking Buffalo on Thursday, a win is a win.
Tank Bowls
Bears-Chargers: Not today, Satan. I’ve learned better than to pick Tank Bowl games.
Bears: At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Chicago needs an offensive line. ProFootballNetwork ranked theirs the 31st best. As I said for week 6, Joe Alt, JC Latham, and Olomuyiwa Fashanu.
Chargers: LA isn’t doing anything with this defense. Brandon Staley isn’t helping matters, but coaches can’t strap on helmets and play alongside their athletes (entertaining as that sounds). My mind might change by the end of the season, but as of week 8, I’m drinking the Kool Aid (McKinstry).
Other Picks
Saints-Colts: Colts (+1.5)
Saints Advantages: QB, RB, DL
Colts Advantages: WR, DB, Home Field, Coaching, Home Field
Props to the Colts for being a top 10 offense despite missing their (potential) franchise QB. Eagles fans will be the first to tell you the difference Shane Steichen makes. I’d say Colts need to prove themselves against a real defense for picking them, but Indianapolis put up 38 points against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week. What’s more, the Saints might be down a man with Michael Thomas battling an illness
Eagles-Commanders: Eagles (-7.0)
Eagles Advantages: QB, WR, OL, DL, DB, Coaching
By all rights, this should be a blowout. Keyword should. Washington is a team that’s been sporadic all season, so it’s only appropriate that they find their footing against a divisional rival as they always tend to do. I think the Eagles are better in every facet, but for some reason, this rivalry brings out the best in Washington. I still anticipate a victory, but I don’t predict it’s going to be a blowout.
Bengals-49ers: Bengals (+5.5)
Bengals Advantages: QB, WR
49ers Advantages: RB, OL, DL, DB, Coaching
I’m calling an audible on this one. It feels somewhat wrong selecting Cincinnati despite how much better San Francisco is at just about every position, but there’s a couple issues selecting them. We got a glimpse of the Niners offense with Brock Purdy injured. Spoilers, it wasn’t the NFC contender people imagined at the start of the year. That, the subtraction of Deebo Samuel, and the questions around how healthy McCaffrey is, makes me wonder how fearsome they can possibly be.
Rams-Cowboys: Cowboys (-6.5)
Rams Advantages: QB, WR, OL, Coaching
Cowboys Advantages: RB, DB
I’m calling an audible again. Dallas is third in the NFL in yards allowed, the Rams are 20th in the league in rushing yards given up. Tony Pollard is going to run wild on the Rams, but I don’t think the Cowboys secondary is going to be safe from Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua. Both QBs are going to make embarrassing mistakes at one point or another. Since Dallas’ run game is better, they can control the clock better after each turnover. Times like this make me wish I could let bias dictate my actions.
Jets-Giants: Jets (-3.0)
Jets Advantages: RB, WR, OL, Coaching
Giants: QB
Seeing how close the two are in stats for both their DL and DBs, I was shocked. Giants are 27th in rush yards allowed, Jets are 26th. Giants are 14th in pass yards allowed, Jets are 15th. If it comes down to a battle of running backs, I trust Breece Hall more than Saquon. Part of that comes down to me not trusting the Giants offensive line, the tread on Saquon’s body, and the offense under Taylor. I trust him more than Daniel Jones, but to be fair, everyone loves the backup (especially when the starter is struggling).
Falcons-Titans: Falcons (-2.5)
Falcons Advantages: WR, OL, DL, DB
Titans Advantages: RB, Coaching
The Falcons have surprised me twofold over the past seven weeks: the degree to which Arthur Smith has been bailed out by high end talent, and the Falcons’ defense’s demonstration of capability. Top ten in passing and rushing yards allowed explains how this team is 4-3 despite capping at 25 points scored this season.
Vikings-Packers: Vikings (-1.5)
Vikings Advantages: QB, RB, OL, DL
Packers Advantages: WR, DB
Packers players are painfully aware of their offensive woes. The way Green Bay looks now is how I expected the Vikings to look when Justin Jefferson went down. The main problem, however, is that the Packers defense is not good enough to carry the load that the offense puts on their shoulders. Not scoring more than 20 points in six weeks isn’t going to do it in a pass-happy league.
Browns-Seahawks: Browns (+3.5)
Browns Advantages: OL, DL, DB, Coaching
Seahawks Advantages: RB, WR
I have to give my flowers to Jim Schwartz. To put it lightly, I was not a fan of his defensive scheming in Philadelphia. Likewise, it’s putting it lightly to say he’s doing a good job in Cleveland (that’ll happen when you actually have franchise cornerstones on defense to build around). The Browns are 1st in passing yards allowed and 7th in rushing yards. On top of that PJ Walker is not only more likable than Deshaun Watson, he’s played better as well. It’s as though Walker’s taken the reigns of the overachieving backup from Geno Smith last year.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
