It’s nice to be able to temper your expectations going into the week, to see where your team’s positioned and know whether you’re in or out. Even if we have to wait another year before having playoff hopes, there’s comfort in understanding where we lie.
Locks
Chiefs-Patriots: Chiefs (-9.5)
It’s a weird sight having both the Patriots and the Chiefs struggle at the same time. Obviously, there’s levels to struggle, but it’s still bizarre. The good news for Pats fans is New England has an advantage with Pacheco out. The bad news is that advantage is at one of the least valued positions in football. Not to mention, despite their best efforts, the Chiefs receiving core is still far better than New England’s. Then again, that’s not a high bar to clear.
Safe Picks
Falcons-Panthers: Falcons (-2.5)
I imagine that Carolina, both its fans and its players, are all but clocked out on the season. hey have nothing to fight for, no reason to go out and win games. What’s the point of putting in effort if there’s nothing to be won? I understand this sounds nihilistic, so I can only imagine how Panthers fans feel.
Commanders-Rams: Rams (-6.5)
The Rams somehow got better after Stafford injured his finger. 31 wasn’t enough to take down Baltimore, but something akin to that should be able to topple a Washington team that’s 32nd against the pass on defense and missing Brian Robinson on offense.
Texans-Titans: Titans (-2.0)
The Texans had a good run, but this looks like it might be the end of the road. No Tank Dell, no CJ Stroud, possibly no Nico Collins. It was looking like Houston could have a very good year for a good while, and by all means they exceeded expectations until injuries caught up to them. It’ll probably be another year yet before they can contend, but for anyone outside the AFC South, they’ll be a fun team to watch for a while.
Avoid
Jets-Dolphins: Jets (+8.0)
Tyreek Hill playing on Sunday is a definite maybe. The good news if he can’t go is well know whether him or Tua are more valuable. The bad news is we’ll miss out on an incredible match between him and Sauce Gardner. Also, I’m not sure Miami’s odds with him MIA (no pun intended). Steer clear of this one until Hill’s status is certain. If he can go, pick Miami.
Other Picks
Giants-Saints: Saints (-5.0)
Don’t let the Giants being a fun story distract from them only scoring 20+ points in their last 5 games. The Saints might not be fantastic, but they can at least manage that measly amount (most of the time). It also goes without saying this is the best defense Tommy DeVito has faced yet. With him only putting up 10 points on New England, I’m interested to see how he does against a top 10 defense against the pass.
Bears-Browns: Browns (-3.0)
On one hand, Flacco has very much to his credit looked good the past couple weeks. On the other, has to if the Browns want to have any shot of overcoming all the recent injuries. Ethan Pocic, Juan Thornhill, Grant Delpit, and Jedrick Wills to name a few. On the other other hand, a disadvantage is only a disadvantage if your opponents are good enough to take advantage of them. Full disclosure: I had the Bears winning this game at first, but I saw that I had four games against the spread and realized I had to peel it back so I didn’t have so many picks against Vegas. I try not to pick against them more than three times per week. I think that’s a fair number.
Bucs-Packers: Packers (-3.5)
I honestly don’t think the Packers and Bucs are that far off from one another, and not just because both teams are 6-7. The story of their seasons is remarkably similar (overcoming struggles in early weeks to stabilize their offense, score 39 points exactly one time). For that reason, I earnestly think this comes down to the last drive, raising the question: who do I trust more?
49ers-Cardinals: 49ers (-12.0)
I don’t have to like it, but I must admit– the Niners are the team to beat in the NFC. Arizona being 3-10 on the season technically doesn’t matter in this case, considering Kyler only played in 4 of those games. What is significant, however, is that the Cardinals are 2-2 since week 12 (Murray’s return) and have scored a maximum of 24 points. That’s a healthy offense, but against San Francisco, I’d be surprised if that was sufficient.
Cowboys-Bills: Cowboys (+2.0)
I’m playing both sides so I always come out on top. If Dallas wins, I was right. If Buffalo wins, Philly gets a hand in the NFC. From an objective standpoint, both teams have had their moments of looking suspicious. Dallas looks shaky on the road when they’re not playing the Panthers or Giants. Likewise, there is an advantage Dallas has over Buffalo, and that’s their turnover avoidance. It is with a heavy heart, then, that I have to give this game to Dallas because Allen will invariably have a costly turnover that lets Dallas sneak away with one.
Ravens-Jaguars: Ravens (-3.5)
Copy paste what I said last week here, just using a better team as an example. Christian Kirk is still out, the secondary is going to be missing two pivotal pieces (Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco). Lawrence is their best option but clearly limited, and they’re walking into a buzzsaw with an injury
Eagles-Seahawks: Seahawks (+3.0)
How many weeks in a row am I going to have to pick against Philly? Darius Slay out, Jalen Hurts sick, Philly hasn’t beaten the Seahawks in 15 years. Nor to mention, the Eagles have looked like they’re just out of gas. They’re lucky they have an easy streak after this, or they might have been in serious trouble.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
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