Divisional Round: NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid (2021-22)

With three weeks of football left, the number of chances to enjoy the greatest sport on Earth is diminishing. At least, for this year. As the amount of teams that play per week gets smaller, the room for error ironically becomes larger. Well, too late to back out now. I’ll have to throw a little salt over my shoulder and pray to the Football Gods for good fortune, but for the time being, here are my picks that will hopefully earn you some money this fine (freezing) weekend.

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Safe Bet

Bengals vs. Titans: Bengals

“Derrick Henry is coming back from an injury, so they’re probably not going to use him very much.” Yeah, I’ve been fooled before. In fact, replacing Derrick Henry with Dalvin Cook, I’ve made this very same mistake. So even without downplaying Henry’s impact, why did I pick the Bengals? Evidently, when the two played in 2020, Cincinnati won 31-20. Mind you, Joe Mixon was injured, Ja’Marr Chase wasn’t drafted yet, and Joe Burrow was a rookie. Though the two didn’t face off this year, I expect a repeat of the 2020 matchup. 

Avoid

Bills vs. Chiefs: Chiefs

After the Bills lost to the Jaguars, I doubted Josh Allen for the rest of the season. The same was true for Patrick Mahomes, who had a stretch in 2021 where he was pretty eh. Since their embarrassments earlier in the season, both have put up performances that not only reminded people why they ever had faith but shamed anyone who ever had a doubt. Allen had a perfect game against the Patriots (seven drives, seven touchdowns); meanwhile, Mahomes has had multiple games with five touchdowns. This is the matchup that I am easily the most excited about, but also the one I’m most scared of.  

Other Picks

49ers vs. Packers: 49ers

Almost no quarterback in NFL history is better than Aaron Rodgers in the regular season. He is en route to being a four-time NFL MVP and has the highest TD-INT ratio of all time (4.89). However, the cracks in the armor start to emerge once one starts to dive into his postseason record. In his 16-year career, Rodgers has a 12-9 record in the playoffs. This, combined with the 49ers sweeping the Packers in 2019, makes it difficult for me to say definitively that Green Bay is going to win easily. Coupled with the potential subtraction of David Bakhtiari and Jaire Alexander, as well as the fear of a rusty Packers team, the only thing that makes me think that the Packers win is Aaron Rodgers, and basing a pick on whether or not a team wins goes against my philosophy of football as a team sport. 

Rams vs. Buccaneers: Rams

This is a somewhat similar case as the Bengals-Titans game. The Rams and Bucs played each other earlier this year, but each team is going to be a lesser version of themselves this time around. The Rams will be missing Andrew Whitworth and Eric Weddle. Meanwhile, the Bucs will be without Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Leonard Fournette. Meanwhile, though Tristan Wirfs, Ryan Jensen, and Sean Murphy Bunting will likely be available, they will likely not be 100%.