In the immediate aftermath of the Eagles’ decision to trade Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts, there have been differing opinions about whether the Eagles should—or will—draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. The Eagles selected Jalen Hurts in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, but the expectation was that Hurts would be an affordable backup to Wentz with some upside.
Hurts flashed some potential during his brief stint as starter near the end of the season, but he also experienced his fair share of struggles. The organization is reportedly optimistic about Hurts, but they may not be completely sold on him. On top of that, it’s rare for teams to pick near to the top of the draft, especially when there is what appears to be a deep quarterback class.
On that last note, NFL draft analyst Matt Miller recently posted a mock draft that included the Eagles making a very interesting selection at sixth overall:
6. Philadelphia Eagles — QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State
If you aren’t sure your guy at quarterback is the guy, you better make a move to improve the position. The new Eagles’ head coaching staff is not tied to Jalen Hurts and general manager Howie Roseman is tied to no one, it seems. This wouldn’t be my pick—I’d give Hurts a year to prove himself and add DeVonta Smith (WR, Alabama), but this pick has a ton of buzz right now.
Trey Lance would be a controversial choice for multiple reasons. For one, some believe that the Eagles should give Jalen Hurts a chance to start in 2021 and prove that he can be the long-term answer at the position. Oh, and there’s also the fact that Trey Lance went to school at North Dakota State, the same small school program that produced Carson Wentz.
Should the fact that Lance went to the same college as Wentz matter? No.
Will it matter? Maybe.
Lance would be repeatedly compared to Wentz. The Philadelphia media would beat that story to death. Fan reactions would be mixed. Howie Roseman and Jeffrey Lurie shouldn’t care about any of those things, but it’s hard to predict how that duo will handle things these days.
Trey Lance the prospect
The only thing that should matter to the Eagles is whether or not they believe in Trey Lance as a quarterback prospect. Here is what Pro Football Network had to say in their Trey Lance NFL Draft Profile near the end of the year:
Lance started all 16 games for NDSU and passed for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns on 287 attempts while completing 66.9% of his passes. Lance also proved his mettle as a runner, amassing 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground, averaging 6.5 yards per carry.
Lance’s all-around production was staggering in 2019, but even more impressive was his ability to limit mistakes. The NDSU quarterback pulled off the remarkable feat of throwing zero interceptions in a given season. His breakout 2019 season not only put him on the map for NFL teams but rendered him a first-round selection in most early mock drafts.
It’s a small sample size, but it’s a pretty damn good sample. North Dakota State only played one game in 2020, which was essentially a Trey Lance showcase game. He impressed in the game but did throw his first career interception. Lance is going to be a polarizing prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft, but he is going to get selected in the first round based on potential alone.
The only question is whether he gets selected near the top of the first round or falls to a team like the Eagles (6), Lions (7), Panthers (8), Broncos (9), 49ers (12), Vikings (14), Patriots (15), Washington Football Team (19), or Bears (20). It’s hard to picture him, as things currently stand in mid-February, falling further than that, but stranger things have happened.
Should the Eagles draft Trey Lance?
Personally, I think the Eagles should approach the 2021 season as if Jalen Hurts is the starter but also fully evaluate all of their potential options at the quarterback position. That includes the 2021 draft, 2022 prospects and free agents, and any current and future trade options. Quarterback is the most important position on the field, and they should do everything in their power to make sure they have to right one.
In theory, that could make Trey Lance the ideal prospect for them. He has an incredibly high ceiling, but he might not be ready to play right away in the NFL, especially after barely playing in 2020. That would allow the Eagles to start Hurts in 2021 and see what he has while also developing Lance.
That might seem like repeating the same mistake since the drafting of Hurts was the catalyst for eventually shipping Wentz out of town. But it would actually be the opposite. As a second-round pick, the Eagles still used valuable draft capital to select Hurts, but he doesn’t have the same level of pressure or expectations as Wentz.
If he flames out, he was “just” a second-round pick that the team hoped would be a valuable backup to the quarterback they just extended. If he turns out to be the long-term answer, Howie Roseman gets a much-needed win after a lengthy list of losses.
And if the Eagles draft Trey Lance, they have a built-in backup plan. If Hurts takes off in 2021 and is the guy, the Eagles have a good problem on their hands. They can either keep Lance on the bench and continue to develop him (which was their plan for Hurts in the first place), or they can flip him in a year or two. If Hurts falls flat or proves to be a replacement-level NFL quarterback, they have a lottery ticket in Lance and can feel good knowing they took their swing.
By their own admission, the Eagles are entering a rebuilding year in 2021. Any rebuild should start with the quarterback position, and having two legitimate long-term options at the position is the best way for them to ensure future success.
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Mike Maher is the editor and publisher of The Birds Blitz. Follow him on Twitter @mikeMaher and @TheBirdsBlitz and check out his archive for all of his latest stories about the Eagles and the NFL.
