Hot take: the middle stages of the NFL season are second only to the preseason. Not knowing what every team is annoying, and people are focused on the playoffs during the late phases. It’ll be interesting to see if teams can pull off an improbable playoff run and reverse their fortunes, but for the most part, we know what each team is.
Game of the Week
Eagles-Chiefs: Eagles (+2.5)
As the name above implies, this is going to be a good one. I’m somewhat guilty of the same thing as the schedule makers, deciding the week’s best game long in advance, but in this case both teams have lived up to their billing. It’s going to be a shootout, if that I have no doubt. As with any close matchup, I’m going Eagles. That’s partially motivated by bias, but also the Eagles improving in key areas (RB, DC, DL). Even if the Eagles defense isn’t as good as last year’s, all they have to do is be better than they were in the Super Bowl.
Locks
Cowboys-Panthers: Cowboys (-10.5)
I don’t know what’s harder: taking Cowboys fans seriously after saying Dak should be top 2 in MVP voting, or getting through this pick while remaining neutral-voiced. I understand being excited for your team, but bragging after beating the Giants and likely the soon-to-be 1-9 Panthers? Perhaps I need to spend less time on Twitter, but I’ve seen a disturbing amount of Cowboys fans overrate their wins. Enjoy the record, sure, just don’t get mad when people make fun of you for spouting nonsense.
Safe Picks
Steelers-Browns: Steelers
A battle of two vaunted defenses, alongside two offenses that have done enough to get them to 6-3. This game might have gone differently if Watson didn’t require season-ending surgery, but football is a game of what is and not what might have been. More good news for Steelers fans, they might actually outgain their opponents in passing/rushing yards! They probably would have won due to their defense anyways, but not having to worry about the QB they’re facing will be a rare relief for the Pittsburgh faithful.
Bucs-49ers: 49ers (-13.0)
The Niners were unrecognizable as a team without Deebo and Trent Williams. Fortunately for SF, they aren’t staring down this reality. Purdy doesn’t have to move Heaven and Earth to beat a team that’s lost four of five, especially considering the Niners are a top 3 team in the NFC when healthy.
Other Picks
Raiders-Dolphins: Raiders (+13.5)
I’m going to say it: there’s a completely different vibe with the Raiders post-McDaniels. Antonio Pierce is actually making use of his best players, letting them have fun and (so far) looking good while doing it. It might be a bit premature but I respect the Raiders, certainly more than I did a few weeks ago. The ultimate test of whether the Raiders are real or not, however, is if they’re able to beat Miami. The Dolphins have yet to beat a good team, and if the Raiders lose then they were just the beneficiaries of vibes and facing the Giants. Then again, as the Bengals game showed us on Thursday, vibes can carry a team far.
Cardinals-Texans: Texans (-5.5)
This would have been a much easier game to pick two weeks ago. It’s going to be fun as hell to watch regardless, especially with the return of Kyler Murray. There was some uncertainty how Murray would look in his return, but unfortunately for them, they have to face a real team.
Titans-Jaguars: Jaguars (-6.5)
It was rough sledding for both teams last week. Jacksonville got put in a blender by a healthy Niners team, Tennessee got blown out by a not-great-but-not-terrible-either Buccaneers team. Between the two, I’d say that Jacksonville not only had the less humiliating loss, but they also have a higher ceiling. Sprinkle in home field advantage, and the Titans have an uphill climb to save their season.
Bears-Lions: Lions (-8.0)
Analysts often make note of a murderer’s row on a schedule, but in a strange twist, the schedule makers took the opposite approach. Starting with Chicago, Detroit has a humiliatingly easy final stretch to the season. Chicago has their eyes on next season. They have two top six picks, and they’ll need them to patch up that o line (maybe QB if they’re feeling bold).
Chargers-Packers: Chargers (-3.0)
I have a hard time even Brandon Staley finds a way to give up 300 yards to this team, a Packers unit who hasn’t scored more than 20 points since mid-September. In the time that I’ve seen him play, Jordan Love seems indecisive with the football, dancing in the pocket for 3-5 seconds before taking a sack. The Chargers defense is ripe for exploitation, but it’s only a disadvantage if your opponent is good enough to exploit it.
Giants-Commanders: Commanders (-9.0)
One year after hiring the coach that completely revitalized Josh Allen’s career, the Giants are starting to unravel. QB, WR, OL, pretty much everything designed to score points is falling apart. I know that judging a QB off their first game is unfair, but only squeaking six points out against the Josh McDaniels Raiders is just pitiful. Across the aisle, Washington has gobs of offensive talent and a QB with the most passing yards in the NFL. Obligatory passing yards are overrated reminder, but it’s certainly better than being last (cough Giants cough).
Jets-Bills: Bills (-7.5)
The Jets sweeping the Bills. I’ll believe it when I see it. The Bills are like the reverse of the Steelers defense: top 3 in everything, but loses games because of backbreaking turnovers. Allen is going to give the Jets a couple, the question is if the Jets can take advantage. Whoever the script writers are, I don’t think they want the Bills falling out of the plot just yet. Take that as you will.
Seahawks-Rams: Seahawks (+2.0)
Whether Wentz or Stafford start against the Rams, I’ll be nervous. Wentz because of his 2020+2022 seasons and his history against the Seahawks, Stafford because he has a thumb injury that’s only had a couple of weeks to heal. He was a full participant recently, but that isn’t any indication of how he’ll actually play. Of course, Seattle’s dealing with some injuries of their own, namely Tyler Lockett, but one receiver isn’t going to swamp an offense like a rusty quarterback.
Vikings-Broncos: Vikings (+3.0)
The Vikings and Broncos are both capable offenses. Unfortunately, Denver sacrificed its defense to revive Russell Wilson. Denver is 23rd in passing yards allowed and last in rushing yards allowed (exciting news for Alexander Mattison owners). That’s good (or bad) for most yards allowed. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 13th in total yards allowed. I expect to reach a modest amount of points, so late game defense is going to be the determining factor.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
