On December 4, Reuben Frank published an “8 Reasons the Eagles’ defense is better than you think” article over at NBC Sports Philadelphia. With all due respect to Roob, I can’t think of anything else about this Eagles team that I would disagree with more.
To be fair, Roob does make some good points and uses legitimate statistics to make his points. He isn’t just throwing a hot take out there. Like the professional writer that he is, he backs up his argument.
But there are some major flaws in the argument, as well.
If you have followed The Birds Blitz since the beginning, you know that I have been critical of Jim Schwartz and his scheme since before the Super Bowl win. There have been flashes, sure, but Schwartz’s units have always lacked consistency. He has regularly failed to make in-game adjustments and has struggled to adapt his defenses to the skillsets of his players despite having unprecedented influence over personnel.
2020 has been a strange year all around, and few teams have had seasons as bizarre as this Eagles team. As Roob points out in his story, the Eagles’ defensive numbers are actually pretty good despite some truly embarrassing performances. But there are some indications that those stats are empty. We’ll cover why below.
8 Reasons this Eagles defense is worse than you think
1. The offenses they have faced
In the opening lines of his story, Roob actually unintentionally hints at why most of the statistics he is about to tout are hollow:
“The Rams game was terrible. Steelers was a disaster, although they’ve done that to everybody. Ravens was ugly.”
Here are some of the numbers from those games:
- vs. Rams: 37 points allowed, 449 total yards, 95.9 QBR, and 142.1 Rating for quarterback Jared Goff
- vs. Steelers: 38 points allowed, 367 total yards, 83.4 QBR, and 125.4 Rating for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger
- vs. Ravens: 30 points allowed, 355 total yards, 86.5 QBR, and 92.5 Rating for quarterback Lamar Jackson
So, in at least three of their 11 games in 2020, the defense was absolutely embarrassed. Before we attempt to give the defense credit for being less terrible in their other eight games, let’s take a quick look at the quarterbacks they have faced in their other games:
- Dwayne Haskins—beat the Eagles Week 1, benched Week 4.
- Joe Burrow—starting his third ever NFL game after not having an offseason, completed 31 of his 44 pass attempts for 312 yards and two touchdowns.
- Nick Mullens/C.J. Beathard—the Eagles allowed 20 points and over 400 total yards to a team decimated by injuries that utilized both Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard at quarterback.
- Daniel Jones x2—if not for Evan Engram dropping a pass late in the fourth quarter, the Eagles would have lost BOTH of their matchups with Daniel Jones and the Giants this season. Despite running zone read runs with Jones every week, Schwartz and the Eagles were completely unprepared for those plays during BOTH of their matchups.
- Ben DiNucci—with the Cowboys missing both Dak Prescott and backup quarterback Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci started his first NFL game against the Eagles. He has not seen the field since.
- Baker Mayfield—playing in a downpour, the Browns leaned heavily on their running game in a win over the Eagles. Mayfield only threw 22 passes against 40 rush attempts for the Browns.
- Russell Wilson—the Eagles defense was OK against Wilson and the Seahawks, but Seattle left a bunch of points on the board and still cruised to an easy victory. DK Metcalf caught 10 passes for 177 yards and could have easily had 200+ yards and a couple of touchdowns.
When discussing any of the statistics for this Eagles defense, consider the quarterbacks they have faced this season.
2. Speaking of their schedule…
As implied above, some of this defense’s success can be attributed to the quarterbacks and offenses they have faced this season. Per Football Outsiders, the Eagles defense has had the sixth easiest schedule based on DVOA. Only the Giants, Browns, Steelers, Washington Football Team, and Titans have had easier schedules.
Playing in the 2020 version of the NFC East should have allowed the Eagles to cruise to an easy division title. Instead, they have dropped two of their four matchups against divisional foes and were a couple of plays from losing all four of them.
3. Inability to force turnovers
The Eagles have just three interceptions this season, which is tied for the fewest in the NFL. Seven PLAYERS have four or more interceptions this season. 25 players have four or more interceptions. They haven’t intercepted a pass in four straight games, since a Daniel Jones pass in Week 7 bounced off the hands of Evan Engram in Week 7 and into the arms of Jalen Mills.
This has been an ongoing theme for Jim Schwartz defenses. He doesn’t do a lot of disguising his defenses and tends utilize a lot of man coverage, so opposing quarterbacks rarely make poor reads that lead to interceptions.
Two of their three interceptions this season came off Nick Mullens, who was benched for C.J. Beathard during the game. But even the two Mullens interceptions weren’t exactly the result of tight or confusing coverages. Mullens inexplicably threw one ball directly to linebacker Alex Singleton, while the other was a ball he floated to safety Rodney McLeod when under pressure.
4. The defense is actually getting worse year-over-year
Surprisingly enough, this Eagles defense has actually gotten worse every year since 2017. While their performance in the 2017 Super Bowl was historically bad and saw Tom Brady and the Patriots set multiple records, 2017 is the only year under Jim Schwartz in which the Eagles have averaged fewer than 20 points allowed per game.
Average points allowed by year:
- 2017: 18.4
- 2018: 21.8
- 2019: 22.1
- 2020: 25.2
Interceptions by year:
- 2017: 19
- 2018: 10
- 2019: 11
- 2020: 3
And while Jim Schwartz defenses have always struggled against strong passing attacks, the 2020 version of his defense has inexplicably struggled against the run:
Average rushing yards per game by year:
- 2017: 79.2
- 2018: 96.9
- 2019: 90.1
- 2020: 128.2
Despite their easy schedule in 2020, the defense is allowing a touchdown more per game and has gotten worse every year since 2017. And this is despite the significant investments the team has made on the defensive side of the ball.
5. 24.8 vs. 25.2
Roob offers up this stat in his article:
“The NFL is more of an offensive league than ever before. Teams are scoring an NFL-record 24.8 points per game this year, 1 ½ points higher than the previous record set in 2018 and nearly 3 ½ points per team per game more than as recently as 2009.”
So, NFL teams are averaging 24.8 points per game, which would easily set an NFL record. As we just mentioned in point four above, the Eagles are currently allowing 25.2 points per game.
And that 25.2 points per game average (which is middle of the road in 2020) is likely to increase over the next month as the Eagles face the Packers, Saints, and Cardinals before finishing the season against the Cowboys and Washington Football Team.
6. The misleading passing defense numbers
In Roob’s “8 Points,” this is point number 3:
“The Eagles’ secondary has been much maligned, but it’s only allowing 210 passing yards per game, 8th-lowest in the NFL, the Eagles’ lowest since 2008 and well below the league average of 241 per game. They’ve also allowed only 14 passing touchdowns, 3rd-fewest in the NFL.”
These numbers are misleading for a number of reasons. For starters, as we touched on above, the Eagles are significantly worse against the run this year than in any other year under Jim Schwartz. They have allowed the 10th most rushing yards in the NFL through 11 games. And since the Eagles have been terrible on both sides of the ball, opposing teams are running on them more. This is what happens when you’re a bad team.
And, again, they have only played four truly legitimately above-average offenses in 11 games. The Eagles pass defense DVOA is currently 20th in the NFL
7. The “lack of talent” argument
Let’s go 7 vs. 7 here. Roob’s #7:
“And it’s not exactly like the Eagles’ defense has been brimming with talent. Schwartz has coached 81 games, and the only defensive Pro Bowlers the Eagles have had during that span are Fletcher Cox and Malcolm Jenkins.”
Big YIKES.
The Eagles’ defensive line is currently the most expensive in the NFL. Jim Schwartz has a ton of influence over the personnel brought in for his defense. The Eagles traded for Darius Slay this offseason. Players who either struggled or weren’t utilized in Philadephia—L.J. Fort, Rasul Douglas, and Sidney Jones, among others—have gone on to find success with other teams.
The idea that Jim Schwartz hasn’t had talent to work with simply isn’t true. He just fails to adjust his defenses to his personnel. Look at what defensive coordinator Patrick Graham is doing with the New York Giants right now. Most NFL fans couldn’t name more than two or three players on that defense, yet Graham is taking what was one of the league’s worst defenses in 2019 and is turning them into a respectable unit.
As for the Pro Bowl argument, one could easily argue that Jim Schwartz and his scheme have caused the lack of Pro Bowlers. We covered the lack of forced turnovers above, which is absolutely the result of the scheme.
8. The offense’s impact
The Eagles are a bad football team. Their offense is one of the worst in the NFL. As a result, many have pointed to the offense’s struggles as an excuse for the defense. However, I don’t think it’s quite that simple.
Yes, the offense has been bad. But has that really impacted the defense’s numbers as much as we think? Between turnovers and their inability to sustain drives, the offense has been putting the defense in tough spots most of the year. But a bad offense can also benefit its defense from a statistical standpoint.
Take this past Monday’s game against the Seahawks, for example. The Eagles’ defense makes a nice stand in the first quarter, stopping the Seahawks on 4th and goal from inside the five-yard line. Seattle left points on the board because they didn’t respect the Eagles’ offense. Late in the second quarter, with the game under control, the Seahawks chewed the clock instead of pushing for more points.
This how a bad offense can actually benefit its defense at times. The Eagles are so bad on offense that opposing teams are putting their own offenses in cruise control, especially in the second half with a lead. This defense allows a scoring drive seemingly every time the offense scores to either take the lead or make the game a one-score game.
Luckily for them, the offense doesn’t score very often.
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Mike Maher is the editor and publisher of The Birds Blitz. Follow him on Twitter @mikeMaher and @TheBirdsBlitz and check out his archive for all of his latest stories about the Eagles and the NFL.
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