Last week, there were two games that didn’t matter because their teams were pretty much out of the race. This week, there are two games so good that I wouldn’t bet on either one. Now that’s what I call an upgrade. As for the rest of the league, most of the games this week should be close. I even had a hard time picking my “safe bets.” Here are the best bets and games to avoid for Week 6 of the NFL season.
Lock
Rams (-9.5) vs. Giants (+9.5)
Daniel Jones has looked better than expected this season. Unfortunately, ‘pretty good’ isn’t enough to match up against one of the best overall teams in the league Sean McVay vs. Joe Judge. Matthew Stafford vs. Daniel Jones. Yeah, I think I’m comfortable taking the Rams here. I don’t think it’s going to be a particularly close game, either. This is also a game that I would prefer the Giants lose, as an Eagles fan.
Safe Bets
Packers (-5.5) vs. Bears (+5.5)
This game is going to come down to the discrepancy in quarterbacks for each team. Chicago has a significantly better defense, especially with Green Bay missing their best corner in Jaire Alexander. Fortunately for Packers fans, while Justin Fields has looked good over the past few weeks, Aaron Rodgers is still that dude. I look forwards to Fields progressing over his rookie season, but for this week, I’m going to take the safe bet and put my money on Rodgers to pull away with a victory.
Bengals (-3.5) vs. Lions (+5.5)
One bad team versus another. Same as the case with Packers-Bears, this is going to be a game that comes down to QB play and who I have more faith in. Frankly, I don’t think very highly of Jared Goff. Even though he could be 3-2 just as easily as he is 0-5. Meanwhile, Burrow has elevated his team to the point where they almost beat Aaron Rodgers in an overtime nail-biter. It should also be noted that the Lions have only scored more than 20 points once this year, and that was in garbage time against San Francisco in week 1.
Avoid
Chargers (+2.5) vs. Ravens (-2.5)/Cardinals (+3.0) Vs. Browns (-3.0)
This is the first time I’m doing this, but I’m picking two “avoid” teams. I’m also conflating those two games into one description, as the reason for avoiding them is the same: each team here is capable of winning. For the sake of argument, I’ll say that Chargers win against the Ravens and the Cardinals win against the Browns, as it’s difficult to see run-centric teams beating teams that are pass-heavy.
Tank Bowls
Dolphins vs. Jaguars
Both of these teams are, as the kids say, ‘down bad.’ The few mock drafts I’ve done have the Jaguars taking Thibodeaux as their first overall pick, so I don’t have to do much speculation in that regard. Plus, Jacksonville just drafted a QB, so of course, they’re not going to be kneejerk and give up on Lawrence after one season (hopefully).
Regarding the Dolphins, Tua has struggled to stay healthy. Though it is admittedly difficult to blame him for… well, getting hurt, the NFL waits for nobody. If Tua doesn’t change some minds over the next 10 weeks, the Dolphins might pull a Cardinals and spend a high draft pick on a QB only a couple of years after taking one fifth overall. The most likely candidate in an admittedly weak draft class is Malik Willis.
Texans vs. Colts
It’s safe to say neither team pictures themselves in this situation 5 weeks into the season. Maybe the Texans without Deshaun Watson, but definitely not the Colts, who thought they had a franchise QB, a top 5 defense, and a top 5 o line. If draft season is here early for the once super bowl hopefuls, then I’d recommend reinforcing that secondary. Perhaps Andrew Booth or Kyle Hamilton will do the trick. That is, assuming Wentz plays all 75% of snaps (he’s played 96% so far).
As for Texas, there are holes up and down the roster. I was asked earlier this season to name a player on their team other than Deshaun Watson, and I genuinely struggled. The team might genuinely need a full rebuild. Keep Tunsil, obviously, along with Fairbairn and Cooks (even though all 3 are veterans). I can also tell you from his time on the Eagles that Grugier-Hill is also a solid linebacker. The first part of the team that I’d rebuild is the defense, which was ranked near the bottom of the league in 2020 and is ranked 28th in 2021. My pick for 2022 is Kyle Hamilton (if Thibodeaux isn’t available). Hamilton is the #3 prospect according to TheDraftNetwork’s big board
Other Picks
Eagles (+6.5) vs. Buccaneers (-6.5): Buccaneers
Hot take: this is going to be a shootout. Brady has the highest football IQ out of probably anyone who’s ever played the game. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers secondary is riddled with injuries, and Hurts has looked good against bad defenses (as one would expect). Brady is sadly probably going to put up 40 points, which is a pace I don’t see Hurts matching in his first year starting.
Steelers (-5.5) Vs. Seahawks (+5.5): Steelers
This is a desperation game for both teams. Both are in one of the toughest divisions in the league, and both can’t afford to lose any ground at 2-3. In my opinion, the Steelers are going to win this game on talent alone. With Russel Wilson injured, the discrepancy in caliber of quarterback between Seattle and Pittsburgh is no longer an advantage for Seattle.
Chiefs (-6.5) vs. WFT (+6.5): Chiefs
The Chiefs are starting to show cracks in the armor this season. Their defense is near the bottom of the league, and Mahomes can only do so much to make up for their failures. With that said, there is nothing on Washington’s team that is of equal value to Mahomes. Heinicke is a fun meme quarterback but has 10 touchdowns vs 8 interceptions. Antonio Gibson is hurt, and Washington’s defense has frequently been exposed. Plus, if the Chiefs lose again, it’s time for them to enter desperation mode, considering the division they’re in.
Vikings (-2.0) vs. Panthers (+2.0): Vikings
I’ll be honest, I have no idea where to put this team. There’s just so much about this team that’s a wild card. The offense is good, but either injured or inconsistent. Meanwhile, the defense is worse than it was last year but better than it was in the first few weeks. Conversely, Darnold had a good opening few weeks but fell off the past couple games. If Carolina wants to win, they have to have a bounceback game from Darnold. I don’t know if the pass defense is good or bad, which means it’s probably mediocre (according to teamrankings.com, Vikings pass defense is ranked 13th, so I wasn’t far off).
Raiders (+3.5) vs. Broncos (-3.5)-: Broncos
Inconsistency is the word here. The Raiders are a more talented team, but Las Vegas is beginning their midseason collapse early. Derek Carr is bent but not broken, it’s hard to know how good interim HC Rich Bisaccia will be. With all the talent the Raiders have on the offensive side of the ball, it’s hard for me to take Denver, because I normally take a good offense over a good defense (in a game, not in team building), I also know that it’s important how talented that team is. Until I see the Bisaccia roster in action, I’m taking the team that has established themselves as at least somewhat decent.
Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Patriots (+3.5): Cowboys
This one should actually be interesting. Everyone thought the Buccaneers would go into Foxborough and blow out the Patriots a couple of weeks ago. Lo and behold, the Bucs still won, but only by a field goal in a low-scoring game. Unfortunately, I don’t think that this one will be as close, as Dallas put up 36 against the Panthers, who have one of the best defenses in the league. I doubt Mac Jones is going to be able to keep up with Dak Prescott (assuming Dak continues to play at a top-5 level).
Bills (-5.5) Vs. Titans (+5.5): Bills
Speaking of players on an MVP trajectory, I don’t predict that a suspect Titans defense will be able to slow Josh Allen down for long, if at all. As is the case with the games I said to avoid, it’s a pass-heavy offense vs. a run-heavy one. Heck, Buffalo just beat one of the best pass-heavy offenses in the league last week. With how much traction the Bills have garnered over the past few years, expect more of the same on Monday.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
