Clears throat… FOOTBALL!
Locks
Ravens vs. Jets: Ravens (-7.0)
While there are some players I like on the Jets, I see them winning maybe three or four games this year. I might be wrong about them going 0-17, but I feel pretty confident about them losing this weekend. It’s not even like the Ravens are stacked, but they’re at least respectable, and they still have Lamar Jackson who’s playing for a new shiny contract. Meanwhile, there are reports of Zach Wilson being outplayed by Joe Flacco in training camp. I know wins aren’t exclusively a quarterback stat, but I’ve seen Lamar win games himself against better teams.
Eagles vs. Lions: Eagles (-4.0)
Am I biased picking the Eagles? A bit. Do I think both teams will be much improved? Yes. Do I think it’ll make a difference for this game? Not as much as Lions fans would like to imagine. Philadelphia won by 38 last year, and I don’t think Hutchinson and Chark are going to make up that gap on their own. Even if Goff replicates his five-game stretch from last year over a year-long span, the Eagles are much improved as well, and won’t go down quietly.
Titans vs. Giants: Titans (-5.5)
Buffalo is the only New York team so far that has earned my respect. I think Brian Daboll will probably be great for the Giants, bias aside, but he needs time to build. For the time being, he’s stuck with a patchwork offensive line, a likely bust in Kadarius Toney, and a disinterested 70 million dollar WR in Kenny Golladay. To be fair, though, Matthew Stafford-> Daniel Jones is quite the downgrade.
Safe Bets
49ers vs. Bears: 49ers (-7.0)
San Francisco is going through it with the quarterback room right now. Garoppolo hasn’t been more than decent since he’s gotten to the 49ers, and the former #3 overall pick is still riding the pine in year two. I’ll eat crow if this turns into an Aaron Rodgers situation and Trey Lance is a future Hall-of-Famer in the making, but for now, it’s not a good look. Even though the Bears arguably have a more exciting quarterback, what’s not arguable is that the 49ers are the superior team, and football is a team sport.
Broncos vs. Seahawks: Broncos (-6.0)
Somehow, I almost forgot that this was a homecoming for Russell Wilson. Seahawks fans, I’m sorry, but the season is starting with a loss to their former quarterback. Denver has a superior QB, defense, and coaching staff (three of arguably the most important elements of a Super Bowl-winning roster). The common consensus is that Wilson carried not only the team, but the coaching staff in Seattle post-LOB. Now, he’s on a Peyton Manning tour of sorts, joining the Broncos and a stacked defense in hopes of earning a second ring before his career ends. The difference however is that Wilson will likely still be a driving force of the offense instead of being a shell of the QB he used to be. Even before the injury in 2021, he had 25 TDs and 7 interceptions in 14 games. Not bad, vet.
Bengals vs. Steelers: Bengals (-6.5)
It’s hard to imagine the Steelers winning this one. The Bengals swept the Steelers in 2021 when Cincy had a worse o-line and Pittsburgh had a better quarterback. I do appreciate Pittsburgh’s consistency, though: they scored 10 points both times. So, I expect Pittsburgh to score 13-20 points maximum. If Cincy can clear that hurdle (like they did in both matchups in 2021), then they should have no issue.
Chiefs vs. Cardinals: Chiefs (-4.5)
As someone who needs Kyler Murray to be that guy for his fantasy team, this pains me, but the offseason and last postseason showed us that Mahomes is still that guy, while the last memory the NFL world has of Murray and Co. is a dismal six-game stretch and an offseason questioning his study habits. Mahomes went through the ringer for around a month and a half last year, but proved me wrong by having an outstanding postseason. The narrative around Murray is that he falls off around the second half of the season, but I’m not sure how he’ll perform without Deandre Hopkins, and so I’m going Murray in a high-scoring contest.
Avoids
Texans vs. Colts: Texans (+8.0)
On paper, this is a pretty cut and dry win for Indy. Houston is not nearly as talented as the Colts, but there’s one problem that rings true: Indy hasn’t won a week 1 matchup since 2013. I use history as my guide, and while I’d love to say Indianapolis wins this game handily, while I struggle to find any way Houston wins, nearly a decade of history is telling me to pick against the Colts. The question now is whether I go against tradition/history and pick a team that hasn’t won week one since 2013. Against my better judgment, I’m sticking with what the past tells me. Feel free to use this information at your own discretion, however.
Other Picks
Bills vs. Rams: Bills (-2.5)
Speaking of ‘on paper,’ that’s what the 2022 season’s inaugural game looks like from afar. I do have a couple of concerns, however, for both teams. While both quarterbacks were standouts in 2021, both showed periods of vulnerability. Granted, perhaps that was because Les Snead replaced Robert Woods with Odell Beckham Jr., and now Allen Robinson, as the WR2. Needless to say, I expect to see that version of Matthew Stafford this Thursday. At least, I would, if Stafford didn’t have to contest with tendonitis earlier in the summer. And so, even if Stafford turns it on later in the season, I see the Rams starting slow, which you just can’t do against a Bills team firing on all cylinders.
Panthers vs. Browns: Panthers (-2.5)
Here’s a rare sentence: I want to thank the NFL schedule makers. I know you’re not supposed to inject bias into reporting, but I hope Mayfield gives the Browns everything they deserve for giving Watson that awful golden albatross, despite knowing the questions around his character. The reason that I wanted to thank the NFL is because this is around the time of the year where the Panthers rattle off three or four wins before falling off. Going beyond skepticism, Baker Mayfield is healthy, Christian McCaffrey is healthy, and most importantly, Mayfield is playing with a chip on his shoulder, which is when he plays best.
Patriots vs. Dolphins: Dolphins (-3.0)
The Dolphins swept the Patriots in 2021, and that was before Miami acquired Tyreek Hill. Belichick is still a defensive genius, but his offensive assistants consist of Adam Gase and Matt Patricia. Admittedly, this is his own fault for putting them in a position of power, Couple that with a lack of depth at wide receiver and only giving a slight advantage at the QB position, I’m going to be a bit bold and select the Dolphins.
Packers vs. Vikings: Vikings (+1.5)
Thank you, NFL, for making Green Bay away to start the season. It’d be more complex if I had to choose between the unknown and the home team, but fortunately, everything is lining up in favor of the Vikings. To his credit, Rodgers beat Arizona last year without his #1, but the loss of Davante Adams cannot be understated, and with a healthy Minnesota team at home, I see MIN pulling off the upset.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: Buccaneers (-1.0)
Dak impressed me in this game last year. He didn’t rack up meaningless yards like I thought he would. He kept the game close the entire time. Woe to the Cowboys, I can see this getting away from them quickly, Not just because Brady is a better quarterback (no kidding), but also because the Buccaneers have far more WR depth.
Chargers vs. Raiders: Chargers (-3.5)
As Chargers fans so helpfully pointed out, LA was one of only two teams in the past ten years to have a winning record despite having the worst defense in the league. J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack were brought in for a reason. The determining factor here, to me, is that Los Angeles will be the home team, and that when the Raiders played them away last season, they got blown out by two scores.
Jaguars vs. Commanders: Commanders (-3.0)
Further enforcing that the NFL only cares about narratives sits this game. The team that not only humiliated Carson Wentz during week 18 last year, but now also rosters his former head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor. I’m going to call this Wentz’s last stand, because if he can’t beat Jacksonville with arguably the best WR1 he’s ever had, then even I am going to have to start conceiving this as the beginning of the end. If we’re being honest, Wentz regressing to 2020 form is about what the Commanders organization deserves.
Saints vs. Falcons: Saints (-5.5)
Truth be told, I went back and forth on this one. I only went Saints because I remembered that Alvin Kamara existed and that the Saints have one of the best defenses in the league. It’d be cool if Marcus Mariota proved me wrong, though, especially considering the Eagles benefit heavily from the Saints being terrible this year. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, I’m just saying I wouldn’t mind if it did.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
