Week 10: NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid

With the crazy sequence of bad busts over the past few weeks, I’ve decided to switch up the format a little bit. The format now is more reminiscent of a stat sheet than a set of observations. The hope is that historical precedent takes the wheel and steers bettors clear of any human error. If this format doesn’t improve the amount of picks predicted correctly per week, then I’ll revert back to the more observational approach next week. For now, however, happy betting!

Use promo code THEBIRDSBLITZ when you sign up for ThriveFantasy today, and you will receive an instant bonus of up to $50 on your first deposit of $20 or more! >>>

Lock

Buccaneers vs. WFT: Buccaneers

Buccaneers (-9.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 138
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 78
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3-1
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7-9
Advantages: QB, RB, WR, OL, DL

Football Team (+9.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 55
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 76
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2-2
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 11-5
Advantages: TE, DB

Safe Picks

Rams vs. 49ers: Rams

Rams (-3.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 117
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 80
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3-1
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6-10
Advantage: QB, RB, WR, OL DL, DB

Embed from Getty Images

49ers (+3.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 78
89 with Jimmy Garoppolo (Trey Lance started against Cardinals in game 1)
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 100
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1-3
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6-6
49ers played Cardinals twice in four weeks
Advantages: TE, LB

Jaguars vs. Colts: Colts

Jaguars (+10.0)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 56
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 94
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1-3
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 8-8

Colts (-10.0)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 137
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 85
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3-1
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 5-11

Panthers vs. Cardinals: Cardinals

Panthers (+10.0)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 56
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 90
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1-3
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 10-6
Advantages: RB, DB, DL

Cardinals (-10.0)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 110
Points Scored Over Last 4 Weeks Without Kyler Murray (1 Game): 31
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 60
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 4-0
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6-10
Advantages: QB, WR, TE, OL

Falcons vs. Cowboys: Cowboys

Falcons (+8.0)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 97
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 92
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3-1
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6-10
Falcons Advantages: QB*
Dak with a groin injury couldn’t clear Teddy Bridgewater

Cowboys (-8.0)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 131
I skipped Minnesota because Cooper Rush started that game
105 points including the Minnesota game
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 105
Minnesota is included in this stat because starters played that game
Without Minnesota, points over last 4 weeks is 131
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3-1
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 9-7 (including Minn)
8-8 with Minnesota notwithstanding
Dallas advantages: RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB
Even if Pitts is better than Schultz/Jarwin, two is better than one

Bills vs. Jets: Bills

Jets (+13.0)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 97
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 116
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1-3
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 11-5
Advantages: N/A

Bills (-13.0)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 101
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 71
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2-2
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 10-6
Advantages: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, DB

Avoid

Lions vs. Steelers: Steelers

Lions (+6.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 53
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 125
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 0-4
Opponent Record Over Past Weeks: 9-7
Advantages: QB*

Steelers (-6.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 94*
Surprisingly not important with Rothelisberger out*
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 76
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 4-0
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6-10
Advantages: RB, WR, OL, DL, DB, TE

Other Picks

Eagles vs. Broncos: Broncos

Eagles (+1.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 112
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 94
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1-3
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7-9
Advantages: QB, WR, TE, OL, DL, DB

Embed from Getty Images

Broncos (-1.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 85
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 67
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2-2
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7-9
Advantages: RB, LB

Seahawks vs. Packers: Packers

Seahawks (+3.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 78
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 66
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 1-3
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 11-5
Advantages: QB*, WR, TE, DB, LB
Note: Russell Wilson might be activated this week

Embed from Getty Images

Packers (-3.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 79
Points Scored Over Last 4 Weeks With Aaron Rodgers: 97
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 59
Record Over Past 4 Weeks; 3-1
Record Over Past 4 Weeks With Aaron Rodgers: 4-0
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 6-10
Advantages: RB, OL
Aaron Rodgers has been activated off the COVID-19 list

Chiefs vs. Raiders

Chiefs

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 67
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 64
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3-1
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 9-7
Advantages: WR, TE, OL, DL, DB

Embed from Getty Images

Raiders

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 92
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 99
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2-2
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 5-11
Advantages: QB, RB, DL, LB
Derek Carr has been better than Mahomes this year, I said it

Vikings vs. Chargers: Vikings

Vikings (+3.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 101
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 99
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2-2
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7-9
Advantages: DL

Chargers (-3.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 104
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 127
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2-2
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7-9
Advantages: QB, TE, OL, DB
RB, WR are very even

Saints vs. Titans: Titans

Saints (+3.0)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 97
Since losing Jameis Winston vs. TAM: 61
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 86
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3-1
Since losing Jameis Winston vs. TAM: 1-1
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 10-6

Titans (-3.0)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 113
Since Losing Derrick Henry: 28
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 88
Record Over Past 4 Weeks 4-0
Since Losing Derrick Henry: 1-0
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 11-5

Browns vs. Patriots: Patriots

Browns (-2.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 82
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 82
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 2-2
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 11-5
Advantages: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL

Patriots (+2.5)

Points Scored over Last 4 Weeks: 134
Points Allowed Over Last 4 Weeks: 72
Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 3-1
Opponent Record Over Past 4 Weeks: 7-9
Advantages: LB, DB

Subscribe to our posts and bookmark these feeds:

* * *

Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.