Well, I tried going the analytics route (one of the worst aspects of the modern NFL), and I ended up about where I would’ve been most weeks anyway. Though I will admit, I wouldn’t have picked the Vikings to beat the Chargers if not for the approach I took last week, and I likely would have still picked the Ravens regardless. Here are our Week 11 NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid.
Lock
Texans (+10) vs. Titans (-10): Titans
Titans have been impressive since Derrick Henry’s injury. Tennessee has rattled off five impressive wins. Meanwhile, Houston is in contention for the number one overall pick. These two teams could not be more opposite. One is atop the entire the AFC, while one is at the bottom of one of the worst divisions in football.
Safe Bets
Lions (+12.5) vs. Browns (-12.5): Browns
Even without Kareem Hunt, the Browns are one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. D’Ernest Johnson proved that if the Browns do go for a 1-2 punch approach to beat the Lions, Nick Chubb and Johnson will likely have little issue tearing through Detroit’s 30th ranked run defense. Of course, there’s the chance that Jared Goff’s injury makes this a trap game and Tim Boyle throws for four touchdowns and 600 yards, but only sickos would want to see that. It’s me, I’m sickos.
Giants (+10.5) vs. Buccaneers (-10.5): Bucs
This game would be easier to predict if Tampa didn’t just have a stinker against Washington last week. So… what’s going to be the deciding factor in this game? Giants don’t have a very good offensive line, and Tampa has one of the best run-stopping defensive lines in the league. That means Daniel Jones is probably going to be forced to win with his arm. Will he be able to do so? Unlikely. Jones has been better than in years past, but is he able to carry a team in the absence of a run game? I have a hard time seeing it.
49ers (-6.5) vs. Jaguars (+6.5): 49ers
Jacksonville isn’t good. They haven’t been good in a couple of years. Their defense has played well over the past few weeks, stymying Josh Allen and completely removing play action from the Colts’ repertoire. Just like the Packers defense, I’ve come to respect the Jags defense slightly more. As for the 49ers, their defense just embarrassed one of the best teams and quarterbacks in the league. With how Trevor Lawrence looked in the first half last week, I can only wonder what Jacksonville is going to look like on Sunday.
Avoid
Cowboys (+3.5) vs. Chiefs (-3.5): Cowboys
For 31 other fanbases, validation is the worst thing that you can give a Cowboys fan. And yet, what aspect of the Chiefs is better than the Cowboys? The Chiefs have a starting safety that’s so bad QBs actively hunt and pick on him. The number of points scored per game went down as snaps were taken away for him. But this isn’t a Daniel Sorensen diss article, I’m sure there are plenty of Chiefs blogs that could do that for me. I’m here to say that to beat the Cowboys, you need to win in man coverage consistently. Between Lamb, Cooper, and soon Gallup, I’m genuinely curious if there is a secondary in the league that can play man coverage all day against a trio like that. My only hope is that Mahomes goes full 2019 and plays like he did when he carried a mediocre Chiefs defense (17th) to the AFC Championship.
Editor’s note: Amari Cooper has been ruled out for this game after testing positive for COVID-19.
Other Picks
Colts vs. Bills: Colts
Y’know what? Screw it. Indianapolis has failed to beat a team with a winning record this year, and history suggests that being contrarian bites me in the backside, but I have faith for some reason. The Colts turned the sixth-best rush defense in the league to the 25th best in one game, they’ve won four of the last five, and they just beat a team that Buffalo lost to in embarrassing fashion (Jacksonville).
Washington vs. Panthers: Washington
This is going to be a fun one in my opinion. I have to stick to tradition and pick the team that I know the most about (aka the team that just beat the defending champions). I’m tempted to pick Carolina since I have more faith Cam Newton than Taylor Heinecke, and I CERTAINLY have more faith in him than Darnold (given the downward spiral Darnold’s season has taken). Plus, Christian McCaffrey is finally healthy. I’m not going to play both sides and say maybe Carolina will win, however. I’ll say definitively that Washington…. is my pick.
Ravens vs. Bears: Bears
I’m somewhat hesitant to pick Baltimore this week. Chicago very nearly knocked off a Pittsburgh team that was 4-0 over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, Baltimore recently scored under 20 under Miami and Cincinnati. Couple that with Lamar Jackson not practicing over the past few days and you’ve got a wrong place, wrong time game for an increasingly inconsistent Ravens squad.
Packers vs. Vikings: Packers
Speaking of the Packers defense, when you shut down a future Hall of Famer for the first time in his career, you know you’re doing something right. This is likely going to be a tough matchup, but I have faith in Rodgers more than Cousins to deliver his team to a win, especially after what the former did to Arizona without Davante Adams available.
Saints vs. Eagles: Eagles
Back to the first NFL team that Hurts beat as a starter. The Eagles have beaten the Saints before, and with Trevor Siemian under center, I see no reason that Philadelphia can’t win again. The Philadelphia offense has begun to hit its stride and the defense has been able to stop quarterbacks that are below average. Rooting for the home team in a supposedly objective article is a dangerous game, but one that I’m comfortable playing this week.
Bengals vs. Raiders: Bengals
Are we in the middle of the classic midseason Raiders collapse? Losing to the Giants and allowing Mahomes to find his groove to the tune of a five-TD game? I know Mahomes has been one of the best QBs in the league over the past few years, but he’s been average to below average the past five games. These two teams have been difficult to measure over the past few weeks, but I believe Cincy is the hotter team and has more momentum going into this game.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks: Seahawks
I trusted the Cardinals after they put up 31 against the 49ers with a backup Quarterback. I no longer trust the Cardinals without Kyler Murray after losing to a potentially cooked Cam Newton. Maybe it’s just that the Panthers were a sinking ship with Sam Darnold, but to only put up 10 points against Carolina, who even the Falcons put up 13 on, is disconcerting. Granted, the Panthers defense is currently #2 in the league, but to not even put up more than one of the most incompetent offenses in the league is a damning mark.
Steelers vs. Chargers: Steelers
Whether Ben Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph start, nobody would mistake either of them for Justin Herbert. Despite LA having the better QB, I’m actually taking Pittsburgh, as Los Angeles is 1-3 in their last four games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is 3-1. Using the forbidden art of tracking stats over the last four games, Chargers have 77 points compared to Pittsburgh’s 87. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has only surrendered 73 points while the Chargers defense has given up 105. It’s weird, but I’m taking Rudolph/Rothelisberger over Herbert.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
