This week is both concerning and interesting to me. Aside from one or two games, I can see this matchup going either way. If I’m as smart as I think I am, I can navigate these tricky waters this week. If not, we’re all diving into the same hellacious waters together. Wish me luck…
Safe Pick
Chargers (-2.5) vs. Broncos (+2.5): Chargers
There are… not a lot of safe picks this week. Denver for sure has a better defense, but I’ll say Chargers because I trust Justin Herbert to win in a shootout more than Teddy Bridgewater. Denver might manage to keep the game close with the two-headed monster of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III, but I believe this is one of the cases where the quarterback will be the determining factor.
Tank Bowls
Bears vs. Lions
Bears: The major problem with the Bears is Matt Nagy. Unfortunately, teams can’t draft head coaches. Even more, unfortunately, Chicago doesn’t have a first-round pick.
Lions: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Derek Stingley, Matt Corral. In that order. If one isn’t available, take the next man up. Since Detroit is probably going to have a top 2 or 3 pick anyways, they, fortunately, don’t have to overthink what to do.
Jets vs. Texans
Jets: The Jets have a surprisingly decent offensive line, being ranked 15th by PFF going into week 10. Since the Jets will likely be picking top 5 and Honest NFL (who is supposedly a retired scout) deemed Kyle Hamilton worthy of a top 5 pick, that’s who I’m taking. I’m somewhat hesitant to take a safety since a top 5 pick should be a game-changer and the Jets still struggled mightily even with Jamal Adams. On the flip side, Eagles fans can tell you how important Malcolm Jenkins was to the defense, and if New York can find a player with that intellect/ability to command the defensive backfield, you take him.
Texans: Sorry, Texans fans, but this is probably going to be a long rebuild. Houston won four games in 2020 WITH a top 5 QB. Now, the best QBs on the team are Davis Mills and Tyrod Taylor. The defense hasn’t gotten much better since then, either. The pass defense is currently ranked 30th, and the overall defense is ranked 29th. My suggestion: understand there won’t be any quick fixes and take DeMarvin Leal to start rebuilding in the trenches. I consulted a Texans mock draft to see if I’m on the right path, and Sports Illustrated had the Texans taking Aiden Hutchinson. Another very solid pick, probably even better than mine. Either way, the Texans, in my opinion, should spend significant capital to build up the trenches, whether they’re getting pressure or setting the edge.
Falcons vs. Jaguars
Falcons: The Matt Ryan is likely coming to an end relatively soon, but probably not quite yet. If Feleipe Franks (who I wanted late in the 2021 draft) ends up exceeding his draft stock, great, but QB should not be the Falcons’ focus right now. For the ninth overall pick (as of now), I’d go corner. The question is, which one? Kaiir Elam, Sauce Gardner, or Andrew Booth? Personally, I wouldn’t go Gardner, purely because he hasn’t had very difficult competition this year. Thefalcoholic.com made their own mock draft and had the Dirty Birds taking Booth. Similar to me, the author of that article recognized that pairing him with A.J. Terrell would be deadly. I’m not copying off of someone else’s homework, I swear. Also, an underappreciated point is that Booth would be reunited with his college teammate: Kyle Pitts.
Jaguars: Dare I guess what Jacksonville is going to do in the offseason? I struggle to picture Urban Meyer making it to a second season, and with a new coaching staff comes change. In all honesty, this is probably where Stingley ends up going. One silver lining for this season is that the Jaguars don’t have to think too long about who to pick.
Panthers vs. Dolphins
Panthers: I know it’s obvious, but if you have the #1 defense in the league, that side of the ball is not a concern. With my Booger moment out of the way, I’d take an o lineman, specifically Evan Neal. Carolina has lots of good players, and while a QB would make them playoff contenders (we’ll see how Cam Newton’s return goes), the 2022 draft has some really solid offensive line prospects that could fill what few holes this roster has.
Dolphins: The Dolphins weren’t supposed to be down here this year. While they’re in the basement, however, they might as well fix their offensive line, who PFF ranked 32nd going into week 11. As of now, the Dolphins hold the 14th overall pick. Neal will likely be gone by this point, so the Dolphins will have to take the second or third best offensive line prospect (or the best QB prospect, since this is around where QBs will likely start to drop off the board). The pick here for me is Kenyon Green. Not only is Green a 5-star prospect according to Thedraftnetwork.com, he’s predicted to be a left tackle.
Seahawks vs. WFT
Football Team: I see the Football Team taking a QB. Heinicke is a fun QB to root for, but can he get Washington to where they want to go? As an Eagles fan, I’m okay with Heinicke at QB. He’s easy to root for as a rival because he’s non-threatening, but also fun to watch. For some reason, I can see Washington taking Sam Howell. Washington is actually similarly situated to Carolina: a good team that’s just a QB away. Funnily enough, people have been saying this since last offseason.
Seahawks: Seattle is not as comfortably situated as Washington (that’s a bit of an awkward sentence, considering Seattle is in Washington and Washington is in Virginia). Even regarding draft status, this is a bad year for Seattle to be bad because they don’t have a first-round pick.
Other Picks
Raiders (+7.5) vs. Cowboys (-7.5): Raiders
I gave this some thought. Dallas technically shouldn’t win this game because Amari Cooper will be out, and CeeDee Lamb might not clear concussion protocol, and the Cowboys struggled mightily without the two of them available against the 26th ranked defenses in the league. In fact, I’m going to talk myself into picking against Dallas. I might be shooting against the wind here, but this is one of the few instances where Dallas isn’t guaranteed to have an excellent performance, and I’ll give the Cowboys’ opponent the benefit ofthe doubt 11 times out of 10.
Bills (-7.0) vs. Saints (+7.0): Bills
I have a weird feeling that even despite Buffalo’s recent struggles, the Saints are going to have trouble scoring. No Jameis Winston, no Alvin Kamara, no Terron Armstead. Heck, the Saints won’t even have Mark Ingram, their second-string running back. The lack of a running game will make NOLA’s offense one-dimensional, and Buffalo has the 6th best pass defense in the league. Unless Winston puts the team on his back, I see a get-right game for the Bills on the horizon.
Steelers (+4.0) vs. Bengals (-4.0): Bengals
I don’t know what’s more impressive: Cincinnati managing to score under 30 points once in the last four weeks, or the Steelers scoring almost 40 points with Rothelisberger (a.k.a. Captain Checkdown) against the Chargers. I almost want to pick the Steelers because the only time the Bengals were held under 30 in the last month was by the division rival Browns, but Pittsburgh might be without T.J.Watt. At the very least, I imagine he’ll be slowed down.
Buccaneers (-3.0) vs. Colts (+3.0): Buccaneers
To their credit, the Colts have found a winning formula: feed Jonathan Taylor, take the ball out of Wentz’s hands to limit mistakes early (and I say this as an avid Wentz fan), and have Wentz throw the ball in critical late-game moments to show off his late-game magic. Funnily enough, I’d pick the Colts if they weren’t going into the bye week, but the Ravens and Rams have made me superstitious about betting on teams going into/coming out of their bye. Bet on the Colts if you’re less superstitious than me, but I don’t trust any team that’s either rusty from or looking forward to their week off.
Titans (+7.0) vs. Patriots (-7.0): Patriots
We’ve all known for a while that Belichick is one of the NFL’s best defensive minds. Not just in the league, but in NFL history. I didn’t even realize this until researching, but this could potentially be for the #1 seed in the AFC. Tennessee has won three out of four, and the only reason that loss might cause concern was because it was against 1-8 Houston. There’s one more tiny thing, however: Belichick is a master of exploiting mismatches. The Titans have impressively found ways to win games despite losing arguably the best running back in the league. The past few weeks have proven that only a fool would gamble against Belichick, however, especially with how Mac Jones has evolved as a QB in the past month, and so I’m taking New England.
Eagles (-3.0) vs. Giants (+3.0): Eagles
It feels good to root for the home team with confidence again. This is the game that Giants fans have been waiting all year for. With how Hurts has developed as a passer and how Daniel Jones… hasn’t, I’m actually looking forward to this game. Division games are always fun, especially when you already know the result (I refuse to spoil the outcome for fear of jinxing the Eagles, but if it’s already too late, then I’m sorry).
Rams (-1.0) vs. Packers (+1.0): Rams
The Rams are a more complete team than the Packers, but Stafford’s recent play has brought the Rams’ season into question. Los Angeles is a team with Super Bowl aspirations, but for LA to beat better teams, Stafford can’t throw two picks per game as he has in the past two games. Rodgers might make worse decisions off the field, but has been one of the most clutch QBs in the league for the past 15 years (not including postseason).
Vikings (+3.0) vs. 49ers (-3.0): 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo has rediscovered his footing recently, but Kirk Cousins is a dark-horse MVP candidate. He’s not going to win due to his record, but for a QB that’s perceived as “mediocre” by more casual fans, an 11.5 TD-INT ratio and a 106.5 passer rating is pretty good. Garoppolo is lucky that he’s catching Cousins in primetime or else this might’ve been a different story. For the uninitiated, there’s a narrative surrounding Cousins that he can’t win in primetime.
Browns (+3.5) vs. Ravens (-3.5): Ravens
I’ve bounced back and forth between being a Baker believer (alliteration!). People joke about Lamar being Since 2019, the Ravens are 3-1 against the Browns. Cleveland has scored under 20 points three of the last four weeks, but so have the Ravens. Both teams have festering inconsistencies, but I’m picking the Ravens because history suggests that whoever wins this game will probably end up losing the next meeting.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
