When’s the last time so many teams were floating around .500 heading into December? This is when teams want to be playing their best football, and given the sheer amount of teams still in playoff contention (even Detroit, somehow), it all comes down to these next three or four weeks. Heck, some games in January could determine who’s playing later next month. Here are the Week 14 NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid.
Locks
Bears (+12.5) vs. Packers (-12.5): Packers
Pardon my hubris in asserting a century-old divisional rivalry as a lock, but there’s a reason these franchises are in the position where they are. This is an oversimplification of the game, but this match might be as simple as placing Matt Nagy and Justin Fields against Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur. There are rumors Nagy will be fired soon and Fields is playing through injury. Meanwhile, Rodgers is a perennial MVP candidate and LaFleur is getting Coach of the Year buzz.
Giants (+10.0) vs. Chargers (-10.0)
For what it’s worth, Daniel Jones probably makes this team better than the other options they have: Mike Glennon and Clayton Thorston (I didn’t say they were good options). Again, this matchup is going to come down to the competency of the Head Coach and Quarterback. Mike Glennon/Freddie Kitchens or Brandon Staley/Justin Herbert? I’ll take what’s behind door #2.
Safe Pick
Lions (+10.0) vs. Broncos (-10.0)
Finally, a matchup that isn’t dependent on the quality of a QB/HC pairing. This one’s going to come down to Denver’s defense. I can’t get over the fact that Denver shut down the Chargers, Cowboys, and Chiefs. At least, I consider one interception, one TD allowed, and under 150 yards passing to be shut down. To be determined if Bridgewater gives the game away with two back-breaking interceptions again.
Avoids
Rams (+2.0) vs. Cardinals (-2.0)
A divisional matchup between two of the best teams in the league. What could possibly go wrong? Rams are coming off a get-right game against the Jaguars. Unfortunately for Stafford & Co., the Cardinals blew them out earlier in the year, and the Rams haven’t been playing their best ball in recent weeks. Jacksonville was a convincing win, but to paraphrase the people who downplayed the Eagles’ win last week, “it’s just the Jaguars.” Anything can happen in a divisional game, though, especially when both teams are equally good.
Steelers (+3.5) vs. Vikings (-3.5): Steelers
The team that tied the Lions vs. the team that lost to the Lions. Now, this one should be interesting. Vikings should be the obvious choice here, as Steelers have the league’s 21st best offense and defense, while Minnesota has the league’s sixth-best offense and… 29th best defense? Well, this actually explains both teams’ inconsistencies. I’ll go Steelers since Adam Thielen will be out and Dalvin Cook will likely be limited. Someone tell UrinatingTree to get out his notepad, this has Greatest Game material written all over it.
Bills (+3.5) vs. Buccaneers (-3.5): Buccaneers
Pretend last week never happened. Judging QBs based on games played in terrible weather isn’t fair. Heck, Mac Jones threw three passes and won, somehow. With that said, it feels like the Bills season is starting to come crashing down. The Buccaneers have had some embarrassing losses, yes, but Buffalo just gives off a weird vibe. The Bills have scored under 20 in three of their last four. That metric holds up after taking away the Blizzard Bowl vs. the Patriots. After the Patriots game, Bills Safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde accosted a reporter for questioning Buffalo’s performance. Despite their record, this feels like Buffalo’s chance to either save their season or collapse as they face a man that they have no love lost for.
Tank Bowls
Seahawks (4-8) vs. Texans (2-10)
Seahawks: Don’t have a first-round pick
Texans: With the third overall pick, the Houston Texans select… Kayvon Thibodeaux/Derek Stingley/Aiden Hutchinson.
Other Picks
Falcons (+2.5) vs. Panthers (-2.5): Falcons
My apologies, I mistook this for a Tank Bowl at first. Although given where the teams are situated, I might not be too far off. Whoever loses this game is most certainly out of the playoff race, given there are only four games remaining. Looking at these two teams, it’s hard to say who is going to be the victor, but I’m going to hinge my pick on Carolina recently firing their offensive coordinator, Joe Brady
49ers (-1.5) vs. Bengals (+1.5): Bengals
Two teams hunting for a wild card spot in their respective divisions. My first inclination was to take the Bengals, and after looking at their point differentials, that notion is reinforced. Cincinnati +64, +25. As always, San Francisco has had injuries to their team that may detract from what their offensive numbers might have been, but the issue is that San Francisco hasn’t been healthy in a couple of years. This year’s unfortunate victim of the injury bug was the running back room. That still hasn’t stopped the 49ers from putting up 30 points consistently. In fact, both of these offenses have been prolific. The difference between the two, however, is defense. I’m going to go against ESPN here and say that the Cincinnati defense has actually been better, purely because the Bengals have given up fewer points.
Raiders (+9.5) vs. Chiefs (-9.5)
I’m going to take the Chiefs here. I said the Bills give off a bad vibe this season, but the Raiders must have built their facilities on an Indian burial ground. Henry Ruggs, Jon Gruden, Damon Arnette in weeks past, and now Josh Jacobs is in the news this week. Maybe this is just karma for moving out of Oakland, maybe this is just a reinforcement that the Raiders tend to collapse in the second half of seasons. Either way, the Raiders have scored more than 15 points once in a month. Not 20, 15. The Chiefs offense isn’t playing great this season, but has been saved in recent weeks by (gasp) their defense! Imagine saying that to a Chiefs fan from 2018-2020
Ravens (+2.5) vs. Browns (-2.5): Browns
19, 16, 16, 10. These are the last four scores put up by the Ravens this year. I don’t know what’s wrong with them this year. If I had to chance a guess, I’d say Greg Roman, the offensive coordinator. Unfortunately, that means the offensive problems are systematic. Again referencing ESPN, Cleveland has somehow found their way to fourth overall in defense. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh went for two because he’s down almost all his cornerbacks (including all-pro Marlon Humphrey). As long as Cleveland turns off internal plumbing, they should be fine.
Jaguars (+8.5) vs. Titans (-8.5): Titans
Trevor Lawrence gets a pass this year. He’s in a bad spot, and his coach/FO isn’t doing him any favors. With that said, even with all the injuries Tennessee is going through, with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as Tannehill’s #1 receiver, I still have more confidence in the Titans at their worst than the Jaguars at their best. Jacksonville hasn’t scored more than 20 points since October 17. It doesn’t help that Julio Jones is returning. Amazing that I said I wouldn’t pick going into/coming out of the bye, and I’ve now done it twice.
Saints (-5.5) vs. Jets (+5.5): Saints
Alvin Kamara’s coming back and the Jets are a mess. That’s my thought process in picking the Saints. I’m not sure how you can confidently pick a team that plays in East Rutherford. I say this as a joke, but at least New Orleans has a top 15 defense. The Saints offense is somehow worse than the Jets’ and Taysom Hill just threw four(!) interceptions, but the Jets defense ranks 32(!) in the league. While the Saints offense is somehow worse statistically, it’s not bad to the point that it’ll make a significant difference. Plus, Kamara’s return should help.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
