As someone who has to pick for games each week, this season has driven me crazy! Why are there so many teams stuck around .500? This level of parity makes my job harder than it needs to be. Fortunately, I haven’t been too thrown off. Here are our Week 16 NFL locks, safe bets, and games to avoid.
Locks
Browns (+7.5) Vs. Packers (-7.5): Packers
Now, I know wins aren’t a QB stat, but there’s a very clear discrepancy between Baker Mayfield and Aaron Rodgers as quarterbacks. Rodgers has been one of the best QBs in the league (what else is new) and Mayfield has been… just okay. Strength on strength, Green Bay has the 21st ranked run defense in the league. That might be the deciding factor if Green Bay didn’t have one of the most loaded rosters in the NFL. There are a few men in the NFL I don’t bet against, and Aaron Rodgers happens to be one of them. Also, Rasul Douglas has revived his career with the Packers and has two pick-sixes on the year, and has recently won NFC Defensive Player of the Week. So, there’s that.
Chargers (-10.0) Vs. Texans (+10.0): Chargers
I said before the Chargers game against the Chiefs that L.A.’s offense had inconsistencies, and I believe that statement has only been reaffirmed ex post facto. Brandon Staley is clearly an aggressive coach. In his aggression, however, he forgot that he had a kicker.
Playing a real NFL game like a match of Madden is a bold strategy that backfired against Kansas City, but I don’t think Staley has to worry about poor/questionable decisions haunting him against Houston, a team that, quite frankly, is going through a rough time right now. Los Angeles has a really good team, quarterback, and coaching staff (even if Staley does sometimes shoot himself in the foot). This game is likely more interesting if it takes place one or two years ago, but in 2021, this is more of a bad team being thrown into a woodchipper than it is a clash between two heavyweights.
Safe Picks
Buccaneers (-10.0) Vs. Panthers (+10.0): Buccaneers
On paper, this should be a lock. On paper. While this game will probably be over quickly if Brady performs like I believe he will, there are superstitions at play here. Brady is on the road against a divisional rival in late December who he should theoretically blow out. I checked the date of the Patriots-Dolphins game from a few years ago: December 29th, 2019. This game takes place on December 26th. History has a funny, weird way of repeating itself, but there’s a key difference between this game and Brady’s bout in 2019: Carolina’s uncertainty at QB. At least Ryan Fitzpatrick has a reputation for being streaky but elite when you least expect, According to Matt Rhule, both Cam Newton and Sam Darnold will see time during the game, which makes me feel this is more about player evaluation than securing a win. With this in mind, it’s hard to imagine Carolina pulling off an upset. Not that I’d be against one, though.
Washington (+10.5) Vs. Cowboys (-10.5): Cowboys
I have a question for both teams: what the %&^# was that game a couple of weeks ago? There was honestly so much weird stuff that happened before and during the game that I honestly can’t wait for the rematch. Washington fans chanting “we want Dallas,” the Cowboys nearly blowing a 27-point lead thanks to a late pick-six by Dak Prescott, Mike McCarthy guaranteeing a win in a press conference, and Dallas bringing their own benches because of Washington’s poor sideline maintenance all predated this game. Lots of disrespect between these two, and this should make for a very interesting round two. Dallas is better on paper and should win this game handily, but again, divisional rivalry.
Lions (+6.0) Vs. Falcons (-6.0): Falcons
I wondered why I don’t respect the Falcons more despite being in the middle of a wild card hunt. For some reason, I’ve written about them like they’re one of the worst teams in the league despite being two games under .500. Perhaps it’s connected to who they’ve won against: Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Jaguars, Panthers. Their best win was against the Trevor-Siemian-led Saints. I think I answered my own question. Apart from maybe the Saints, these really aren’t quality wins. Fortunately, the Falcons have shown they are capable of routinely beating teams that actually are of that bottom echelon. Unfortunately for the Lions, they fit this criteria. After all, their best win is against the *checks notes* CARDINALS?! Last week??? Okay, never mind, forget everything I said. Dang, I might actually have to put some respect on Jared Goff’s name. That is, after he comes off the COVID-19 list.
Tank Bowls
Jaguars (2-12) Vs. Jets (3-11)
I’m starting to see a pattern with these Tank Bowls, which exist only to acknowledge a game exists, even if they don’t necessarily matter in the grand scheme. Both Jacksonville and New York will be top five picks. I think I’ve been quite consistent in my picks, but if I had to say definitively who I think they should take, I say New York takes Kyle Hamilton and Jacksonville takes whoever remains of the Big Three (Hutchinson, Stingley, Thibodeaux). It’s a toss-up to which one of them will be the best, but each one is a safe and sexy pick, and Lord knows JAX needs some good publicity right now. As for New York, I’m going off the word of Honest NFL, a self-proclaimed NFL scout/insider. Is he/she actually? Who knows. All I know is someone who’s probably smarter than me called Hamilton a top 5 pick, and NY needs help in their secondary, especially after Marcus Maye’s ACL tear.
Other Picks
49ers (-3.0) Vs. Titans (+3.0): 49ers
Derrick Henry should be coming back pretty soon. That’s good to hear, the NFL is better with him healthy. Even if his return ends up being this week, however, I can’t assume that he will have an extremely heavy workload. Garoppolo has quietly been playing well this year and the 49ers have been solid on both offense (12th) and defense (6th). Also, by some miracle, Josh Norman has had a solid season. Nothing great, as he’s allowed #144 in yards per reception (39-465), and if Cowboys fans are allowed to overhype Trevon Diggs despite leading the league in yards and penalty yards allowed, then I’m allowed to praise Norman with Joey Bosa and Darius Leonard for being first in forced fumbles.
Colts (+1.0) Vs. Cardinals (-1.0): Colts
Everyone knows who the star is on that Colts offense. I’ve got nothing but respect for Wentz (which makes me feel like a rare breed these days), but each team’s priority is stopping the run when facing the Colts, as it should be. Not enough people talk about this, but when you have a back that can do what Taylor does, you can control the entire game flow. The Bills and Jets were both top rush defenses in the league. New York got so dominated that they fell from 6th to 25th ex post facto. It’s rare nowadays that a rushing attack can determine the outcome of a game, but Indianapolis is luckily living in its own pocket dimension.
Rams (-3.0) Vs. Vikings (+3.0): Rams
I’m going to say Stafford’s struggles briefly following the Odell Beckham Jr. trade were a byproduct of Robert Woods shortly beforehand tearing his ACL. In recent weeks, OBJ has found the end zone three times in three games, and the Rams just beat the hottest team in the league in week 15. LA has put up a minimum of 28 in three of four. Can Cousins and Company keep pace? It depends on how much they hold back Dalvin Cook. With Von Miller coming off of the COVID/Reserve List. even if Cook isn’t Miller’s assignment, other defenders are freed up to play the run.
Giants (+10.0) Vs. Eagles (-10.0): Eagles
Giants fans wanted revenge for week 17 last year. They got it by picking off Jalen Hurts three times. Now, Eagles fans were left with a bad taste in their mouths due to that game a couple of weeks ago. I let my bias bleed through now and then, but as an Eagles fan, I don’t just want a win. I want a massacre against a bad Giants team missing their starting backup quarterback. With Hurts shaking off what I choose to believe was rust and playing a really good second half against an admittedly embattered Washington team, I look forward to seeing him ball out the rest of the way. Hopefully, he can continue his positive play against two solid defenses in the Giants and Cowboys (yes, I’m also allowed to be realistic about the positive qualities of division rivals).
Bills (+2.5) Vs. Patriots (-2.5): Bills
I’m looking forward to the Bills and Patriots playing a real rivalry game that isn’t in the middle of a giant snowstorm. Hopefully, Buffalo left their 55-MPH winds at home, too. To me, this game is scary for some reason. My guess is because this is a divisional game that’s hard to assess due to rough weather conditions earlier in the year. I’m going to pick the Bills because the Patriots offense struggled last week in absence of Damien Harris. I’ve learned watching the Eagles for the past couple years that a one-dimensional offense. The question becomes then whether Belicheck can do enough to throw Allen off his game. Considering the Bills swept the Patriots in 2020, last time the two teams played in somewhat normal conditions, I’ll take a risk and choose against Belichick just this once. I have a weird feeling Buffalo’s going to win this game.
Ravens (+4.5) Vs. Bengals (-4.5): Bengals
Division rivalries are always fun. That is, if my definition of fun was tearing my hair out where two teams that seem not even close on paper suddenly get scrappy in hopes of at least playing spoiler. I’m going to pick the Bengals because there is questions surrounding Lamar’s health, Huntley is an unknown still, and the Ravens defense is being held together by a thread. 12 players for the Ravens are on IR, 10 players are on the COVID/reserve list. That’s nearly half of the roster. Take a gamble on a team that’s been riddled with injury and a QB that hasn’t been playing his best ball this year, I will not.
Bears (+6.5) Vs. Seahawks (-6.5): Seahawks
Speaking of questionable play: Russell Wilson hasn’t played up to snuff and all of Seattle’s past draft sins are coming back to haunt them. Few teams in the NFL go as far as their QB takes them as much as Seattle. At 4-8, Russ hasn’t been cooking as well as years past. And yet, as bad as Seattle has been, I’ll take Russ at his worst over Chicago at their best. Wilson’s still scoring two touchdowns per game, so he isn’t at the level of futility that washed Dan Marino was in his swan song, but after returning from injury, Russ has been… above average. The sad thing is that should still be enough to beat Chicago.
Side note: I realized too late this should be a Tank Bowl, and then I realized too late after that that neither of these franchises have a first round pick next year.
Broncos (+1.0) Vs. Raiders (-1.0): Raiders
It’s like I said last week: Broncos go from scoring 10 points one week to scoring 30 another. However, that was with Teddy Bridgewater. Drew Lock throws a wrench into this season-long trend. For that, I will never forgive them, and I will hence pick against them in a fit of rage!
Alright, I’m over it.
Steelers (+8.5) Vs. Chiefs (-8.5): Chiefs
Mahomes has been playing like a windshield wiper this season. Up and down and up and down and up and down. However, the Steelers have been the same way. So, how do you pick between two teams with glaring inconsistencies? Pick the team with the higher ceiling, which happens to be the Chiefs. According to ESPN, each defense is bottom 10. Chiefs are ranked 23rd, Steelers are ranked 25th, so it should be a shootout. One of the main critiques of Roethlisberger is his inability to throw deep, making keeping up in a shootout difficult. That’s my story and I’m sticking with it.
Dolphins (+3.0) Vs. Saints (-3.0): Dolphins
Miami’s doing the same thing they did in 2019. Doing terrible in the first half of the season and catching fire when the year is all but lost. Experts call this Atlanta Falcons Syndrome. The difference this year, however, is that Miami has a shot at a wild card spot (similar to Atlanta, appropriately enough). I have to give props to New Orleans for beating Tampa Bay last week. However, the problem remains that the Saints have a fullback playing QB still. Unless the Saints are once again able to stymie Tua the same way they did Brady, Tua has been playing better, to his credit, and the Dolphins have been winning games. Granted, Miami has had an easy record thus far. Take the Dolphins if you don’t think the Saints are a tough opponent, which I don’t due to NOLA’s offense. If the Saints win, it’ll be because the defense scored while also keeping the Dolphins out of the end zone.
Subscribe to our posts and bookmark these feeds:
* * *
Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
