Well, this isn’t something you see very often. I honestly don’t have a matchup that I can call with 100% confidence. The NFL’s modus operandi is parity, and I’d say they succeeded. For the first time in a while, I’m struggling. Side note: wow, Vegas and I do not agree this week.
Safe Bets
Falcons vs. Rams: Rams (-10.5)
Even if the Falcons play well, they are proof that no lead in the NFL is safe. You trick yourself into thinking there’s no way they could possibly constantly lose in heartbreaking fashion, and yet, somehow they manage. I’m tempted to call this a lock in favor of Los Angeles, but there were some ugly turnovers on both sides in the Rams-Bills games. If Stafford plays how he did last week, I don’t think even the discrepancy in talent can save Stafford and Co.
Patriots vs. Steelers: Steelers (+1.5)
Wins aren’t exclusively tied to QBs, but they sure do help. The strength of the Steelers is their defensive personnel, the strength of the Patriots is their defensive genius. Frankly, the Steelers are just more talented and are more than likely not going to feast on Brian Hoyer. This was going to be an iffy game before Mac Jones got injured, now it’s pretty easy for me to call it in favor of Pittsburgh.
Jets vs. Browns: Browns (-6.0)
Similar to the Pittsburgh-New England contest, neither QB exactly inspires confidence between Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco. This is going to be a miserable affair, but I foresee the running game being the difference between victory and defeat for the two. It also doesn’t help that Flacco has never won a game in three years as a Jet (0-6 since 2020).
Titans vs. Bills: Bills (-7.5)
Am I able to be amiable with a team that lost to the New York Giants? The Bills just proved last week that just like last year, it’s probably going to be them seeing the Chiefs in the AFCCG again. Just like I need to respect the Giants for beating the Titans, there’s also a chance I need to look at Tennessee sideways for losing to a team that hasn’t had a winning record in six years.
Avoid
Colts vs. Jaguars: Jaguars (+4.5)
This falls into avoid territory for me since they’re going away to the Jaguars. It’s early in the season, but this is a do-or-die game for the Colts for multiple reasons. They’re sitting at 0-0-1 right now, they need to get over the hump of facing Jacksonville away, and the QB they moved on from in the offseason just defeated them. Can they do it? DeForest Buckner questionable, no Michael Pittman, no Shaq Leonard. Combine that with Indianapolis’ shaky history playing in Jacksonville and it’s an easier choice than it should be.
Other Picks
Panthers vs. Giants: Giants (-1.0)
Now that the Giants beat the Titans last week, I’m afraid I might have to give them their proper respect. They’re certainly better than the Panthers, my question is mostly if this week one fortune will permeate through the rest of the season to the point where I actually have to view New York as a feasible threat. I’m not convinced on Carolina either, but at least NY did what they had to week one.
Dolphins vs. Ravens: Ravens (-4.0)
If Miami is able to defeat Baltimore, you can color me impressed. Yes, Miami has a better receiving core, but I’ve seen Lamar Jackson take over games and beat superior teams, and I trust Lamar’s consistency more than I do Tua’s. Miami is probably the better team, but I’m not brave enough to pick Miami over Baltimore, especially with Miami being the away team.
Buccaneers vs. Saints: Saints (+3.0)
Two factors play into me picking New Orleans. One, Brady has a bad record against backups. Two, would you believe the Buccaneers have lost five of six contests since Tom Brady was traded? That was when Brady had a better team, too. The question now is whether the Saints can keep that streak alive without Sean Payton at the helm.
Commanders vs. Lions: Commanders (-1.0)
To Wentz’s credit, he did throw for the second most touchdowns in the entire NFL last week. To his detriment, however, he wouldn’t have needed the last one if he didn’t nearly cost his team the game. Washington is lucky they’ll be facing Detroit without De’Andre Swift. Or at least, a Swift that will be playing in a much more limited capacity. Can Goff win a game himself? He might have to if he has to rely on Jamaal Williams as his feature back for the day.
Seahawks vs. 49ers: Seahawks (+8.5)
Geno. Smith. Who saw that Monday night game coming?! Not me, that’s for sure. The 49ers have a very good defense, but so does Denver, and Smith was carving them up like Thanksgiving turkey. 82.1 completion percentage, two touchdowns, 119.5 passer rating. This should be an interesting one considering it’s an inter-division matchup, anything can happen, but I’ve seen more to convince me of the Seahawks’ odds than the Niners. Then again, maybe that’s because the Seahawks defense had no issue reading Wilson’s hand signs.
Cardinals vs. Raiders: Cardinals (+5.5)
I’ve yet to see Murray thrive without DeAndre Hopkins. Granted, the same may be said about Carr. Heck, Carr had all the help you could ask for from receivers and he had more interceptions than TDs last week. Like with Wentz, I see this as a sort of last stand to see whether he can defeat decent teams without help. If Murray can only beat up on bottom feeders, I’ll have to look at him differently.
Texans vs. Broncos: Texans (+10.5)
It must’ve been fate that UrinatingTree’s recap of the Broncos-Seahawks game came on while I was typing this. Week one, one of these teams impressed and one gave us more questions than answers. Since Davis Mills started last year, I’ve been impressed with his decision making. As for Denver, I’m looking at them sideways for their inability to score against *checks notes* Seattle.
Bears vs. Packers: Packers (-9.5)
Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears, and until proven otherwise, I’m going to be holding onto history to be my guide, clinging to the belief that Aaron Rodgers has not been carried the past few years by Davante Adams. I remember Rodgers had a terrible game a couple years ago against Tampa and went on to win the MVP.
Bengals vs. Cowboys: Bengals (-7.0)
Cincinnati won’t win many games giving up five turnovers. Likewise, Dallas won’t win many games not scoring a solitary touchdown. This is going to be either a blowout or the most ugly win for Dallas in the past few years. I don’t expect Burrow to give the game away again. As long as he can be better than *checks notes* Cooper Rush, they should cover the spread no problem.
Vikings vs. Eagles: Vikings (+2.5)
I know the offense won’t be a problem for either team. What will determine the winner more than anything is the defense. As an Eagles fan, I can only hope the Vikings get “primetime Kirk,” but even then, how bad can he be against a defense that, for all their talent, seems to have a very difficult time stopping even the most one-dimensional offenses?
Subscribe to our posts and bookmark these feeds:
* * *
Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
