We’re nearing the 1/3 mark of the season. Some are distancing themselves from the pack, some are focusing their attention to the future as early hope slips from their fingers. Then again, it’s still technically early in the season, and I’ve been wrong before.
Lock
Giants-Dolphins: Dolphins (-11.0)
Even if the Giants weren’t last in the league in points scored, Miami’s a buzzsaw that if everything keeps pace will be the AFC’s representative in the Super Bowl. Wink Martindale knows how dangerous Miami is, and he made no bones about revealing it in a Giants presser:: “I’m sleeping like a baby. Every two hours I wake up and cry and go to the bathroom and try to go back and get some more sleep.’” It’s appropriate the Giants are playing the Dolphins this week, because after Sunday, their season may very well be fin.
Safe Pick
Jaguars-Bills: Bills (-5.0)
The Football Gods didn’t take kindly to me questioning whether Josh Allen was a product of Brian Daboll or not, and for my hubris, they smote any optimism football fans outside of Buffalo might have for the year. They had a bad week one, but have scored at least 35 points every week ex post facto. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has had a more interesting scoring pattern. They netted 31 points week 1 before a 22-point dropoff in week 2. Their output has increased every week since, however, climbing to 17 in week 3 and 23 in week 4. If everything tracks the way it has, Buffalo should win around 36-31.
Avoid
Cowboys-49ers: 49ers (-3.5)
There’s positives and negatives about removing bias from your system when picking games. The good is that it allows you to think clearly, the negative is that you end up having no qualms about saying Dallas has a very good defense. Okay, some qualms, but it’d be intellectually dishonest to omit that it’s been the best half of the ball this year. Part of that is the personnel, part of that is the coaching, part of that is the quarterbacks (not named Josh Dobbs) that they’ve faced. I’m not sure if Purdy’s underrated or Shanahan’s just the same genius as always, but the 49ers have looked like the most complete team in the NFC 33% of the way into the season. Dallas has been shaky on offense. Not to sound like Booger McFarland, but if Purdy limits mistakes, Niners should own Dallas like they have the past few years.
Tank Bowls
Bengals-Cardinals: Cardinals (+3.0)
Two teams with young, well-fed quarterbacks. In Arizona’s case, it might serve them well to look at a true #1 receiver. Marquise Brown is fine, but he hasn’t been someone who can keep pace with the top dogs in the NFL. If possible, I’d give a strong look at Marvin Harrison Jr. Looking at the other members of the week’s Tank Bowls, they all have their #1s: Jeudy, Wilson, Chase. Their interest lies elsewhere. Speaking of which: Cincinnati might want to look into shoring up that offensive line. Being ranked 30th as a unit might explain why Burrow’s been struggling early. NFLDraftBuzz has Joe Alt, JC Latham, and Olomuyiwa Fashanu as the top 3 prospects. Bengals fans, these might be three names to watch as the CFB season progresses.
Jets-Broncos: Broncos (+2.5)
Funny as it may be to see Aaron Rodgers watch his replacement for the second time in four years, it might not be that unrealistic. Let’s take Caleb Williams out of the equation since he very well might return to USC. In that case, Drake Maye, you are a New York Jet. Denver, however, has a problem on defense. Chicago should not be able to put 28 points on them. I also don’t care how good Miami’s offense is, no team should ever hang 70 points on you. So, where to start? Denver’s got at least one strong corner in Surtain, but that hasn’t stopped them from being the 31st ranked passing defense (as of week 4). So, maybe pairing him with a second hand in the backfield isn’t such a bad idea. Kool-Aid McKinstry would be my first thought, followed by Kalen King.
Other Picks
Texans-Falcons: Texans (+2.0)
This game is otherwise known as the “Better Than I Thought” Bowl. The Falcons have managed to score 20+ points in, and CJ Stroud was named the NFL OROY for September. I expect both offenses to hit the higher end of their upside based on the Texans and Falcons both not having particularly fearsome defenses. Last week’s 30-burger by Stroud showed me he was for real. As it tends to be in matchups of teams close in terms of talent, this is going to come down to the quarterback, and Stroud has been very impressive early on.
Chiefs-Vikings: Chiefs (-3.5)
I underestimated the Chiefs week 1, and they still almost pulled off the upset. Putting up 20 points without any competent catching options isn’t something I can ignore. That’s not great or anything on its own, but I’m someone that likes to look at the context surrounding a player before passing judgment. Even with Justin Jefferson, the Vikings have only managed a maximum of 28 points. Kansas City has been volatile on offense, but Minnesota would have had seven points last week if not for Carolina making two serious mistakes. Hot take: Mahomes isn’t going to make the same mistakes Young did. Speaking of which–
Panthers-Lions: Lions (-9.5)
The script writers are having fun this year, but I think two 0-4 teams shocking the world is too much excitement for even them. While the Lions are ranked 16th in passing yards allowed, there’s no Emmanuel Forbes on their team that a QB can just ruthlessly pick on for 60 minutes*. Even then, it might not matter if they did. Carolina has yet to break 20 points as an offensive unit. Need anything be said further than that? It might not even matter that Amon Ra is at risk of not playing tomorrow.
*I do want to say, however, that I hope Forbes in a good spot mentally after privating his social media accounts.
Saints-Patriots: Saints (+1.0)
To quote a comment on the Broncos-Raiders TNF game from 2022, ‘this game is going to set football back 50 years.’ Two teams that seem offended by the idea of scoring on a collision course. I’ll say this, though, the Saints are at least stable. Mac Jones was benched for Bailey Zappe last week, who for five minutes last year thought he was going to take Mac’s job. Albeit, Jones was going against one of the best defenses in the NFL, which is the main reason they’re 3-1 right now, but Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara give hope that this game will be made at least somewhat worth watching.
Titans-Colts: Colts (-1.0)
While I appreciate the humor in Tennessee going from winning 27-3 to losing by that very same score in back to back weeks, it’s not very useful for game picking. Now look at Indianapolis, hovering around 21 points in four straight games. Impeccable consistency! Jokes aside, Indianapolis’ strength is run defense. That’s not to say they’ll be able to contain Derrick Henry, as he’s rushed for over 100 in 6 of their last 7 matchups. Even with Henry this season, however, that dominance at the RB position hasn’t translated into points this season as often as Titans fans probably would like. On that note, Jonathan Taylor signed a three-year deal in the time it took to write this.
Ravens-Steelers: Ravens (-4.5)
The catch 22 of the 23 Steelers: I’m not picking them to beat a team unless they’re facing a bad opponent, and facing a team with a similar record places them in Tank Bowl territory, thus negating any value the victory might have. I know Tomlin is going to finish with around 9 wins for no other reason than tradition, but as long as Matt Canada is offensive coordinator, I’m not inclined to trust the Steelers as an offensive unit.
Eagles-Rams: Rams (+4.0)
Forgive me, Eagles faithful, for I have sinned. I’m well aware we simply keep finding ways to win games, but there are a couple of aspects of this Rams team that terrify me: Kupp coming back and Nacua going nuclear over the past four weeks. Our defense is heavily reliant on pass rush, meaning we can get beat over the top at any time, and we seem allergic to covering the middle of the field. It’s going to be an offensive shootout, which makes me nervous considering how our offense has looked this year. I can’t complain about being 4-0, but I can acknowledge how ugly those wins have looked.
Packers-Raiders: Packers (+2.0)
If I don’t trust Kenny Pickett despite having a great head coach, imagine how I feel about the Raiders. Aiden McConnel and Josh McDaniels aren’t exactly names that send shivers up defensive coordinators’ spines. With Green Bay’s offense being the healthiest it’s been in weeks, it might end up looking better than its PPG ranking suggests (20th). Even then, while not great, it’s higher than Raiders, who come in at 24th. The Packers have broken 20 points three times in four weeks. The Raiders have yet to do it once. If Las Vegas has any hope of winning, it’s on the back of Josh Jacobs.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
