It’s hard to believe the season is almost 33% over. Once NFL season starts, it really doesn’t stop. If there’s any consolation, TheDraftNetwork is open year-round. There are some good matchups this week, some tough calls, and the season’s first Tank Bowls.
Lock
Buccaneers (-10) vs. Dolphins (+10)
Considering that I’m 1-3 in my “locks,” but I’m feeling good about this week. Miami just got 27 hung on them by a Colts team rife with injuries on both sides of the ball, including a Carson Wentz playing without any ankles. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have the choice of either Jacoby Brissett or Tua Tagovailoa on a GOOD day. Tampa has to deal with its own share of injuries, especially in the secondary but the question is whether they will be able to exploit them.
Safe Bet
Packers (-3) vs. Bengals (+3)
My main concern with this season is whether or not the Bengals would get Burrow killed behind a makeshift offensive line. Burrow has mercifully been spared of this fate, but other problems have unfortunately arisen. Mixon is dealing with an ankle issue, and so aside from Ja/marr Chase, Burrow’s best weapons will be *checks depth chart* Samaje Perine and CJ Uzomah. Burrow isn’t as good as Rodgers at being a QB. Not now, probably not ever, I foresee a high scoring affair, but I can’t see Burrow overcoming the flaws on the Bengals roster, as well as the skill and experience gap between he and a top 3 quarterback in the league. Not only that, take note that Cincinnati hasn’t put up more than 24 points this year, and Green Bay has put up 27 against each team other than the Saints. Sounds to me like the -3 spread for Green Bay is perfect, if not a little bit generous.
Patriots (-8) vs. Texans (+8)
If it were Tyrod Taylor in the driver’s seat for Houston, I’d actually give the nod to H-Town in a close win. However, Davis Mills does not seem ready to be starting full-time in the NFL. I tried to be fair and looked at his previous two opponents: Carolina and Buffalo, Two admittedly tough teams with stingy defenses. Unfortunately for Mills, they have Belicheck’s Patriots next, who eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast. I anticipate a repeat of the Jets-Patriots game from this year, if not a little better.
Giants (+7) vs. Cowboys (-7)
Am I crazy enough to take Daniel Jones in an upset? No, but that would be funny. Am I crazy enough to go against the spread (garbage time or otherwise). Surprisingly, yes. I think this game will be closer than most people think. New York always plays Dallas close and Daniel Jones has surprisingly been at least respectable this year. The Dallas defense, however, has been surprisingly decent, as well. Betting against Vegas this game will either make me look like a genius or be a game where people ask “what the hell were you thinking?”
Avoid
Bills (+3) vs. Chiefs (-3)
This will likely be a game so good that you can’t help but feel bad for the loser. For a fan of football, that’s a great problem to have. Unfortunately, the Chiefs defense doesn’t have to worry about playing too well. I’m not concerned about either offense, as both quarterbacks are MVP-caliber talent. The deciding factor for me, however, is the defense on each side. Chris Jones and Tyrian Mathieu can’t do everything themselves. The defense desperately needs help through the draft and free agency. Meanwhile, the Bills defense is littered with talent: Micah Hyde, Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, Tre’Davious White. On principal, I would avoid a game where the two quarterbacks are capable of anything, but I feel comfortable picking the Bills to win a tight bout.
Tank Bowls
Falcons vs. Jets
Shoutout to UrinatingTree for the name. The funny thing about tank bowls is that whoever loses ends up winning in the long run. I guess instead of saying who I think will win, I should say who losing is more beneficial for. The first overall pick of the 2022 draft will most likely be defense, as none of the quarterbacks in next year’s class are worth that capital. Atlanta desperately needs help on defense, so I’ll say they benefit the most from losing. My only question is whether they Stink for Stingley or if they have Dibs on Thibs (Kayvon Thibideaux)?
Lions vs. Vikings
It’s likely that neither of these teams are doing anything this year, one sitting and one sitting at 0-4. With the Packers at 3-1, making the playoffs is a longshot for either team. With that said, if Detroit loses, I would go offensive line. Between Frank Ragnow at Center and Penei Sewell at Left Tackle, Detroit is one or two pieces away from a top 5-10 offensive line. With that said, I would open the draft by taking Kayvon Thibodeaux #3 overall and Kenyon Green #29 overall to bolster the interior. Thibodeaux is a can’t miss prospect and Green would arguably make Detroit’s o line elite.
The Vikings will likely be rebuilding soon. Longtime stalwarts such as Anthony Harris, Eric Wilson, Kyle Rudolph, and Linval Joseph all left in the offseason. The holdovers are getting up there in age, too. Everson Griffin, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Anthony Barr. You could even argue that the rebuild has begun with Kellen Mond this last draft. If I were the Vikings, I’d start on defense and draft a Safety that can command that field, similar to the role Malcom Jenkins played with the Eagles for years. With that said, the move is to trade one Harris for another, drafting Christian Harris out of Alabama. TheDraftNetwork.com describes Harris as a Will Linebacker who is a leader capable of leading a multiple-front defense.
Other Picks
Colts vs. Ravens: Ravens
Indianapolis had a good team win last week. Unfortunately for Indiana, Jacoby Brissett doesn’t play for 32 different teams. Baltimore admittedly has a lot of weaknesses to exploit. Injuries in the secondary, no real RB1 (unless you view Lamar Jackson as a running back). I’m picking Baltimore because even though Lamar Jackson almost lose to the Lions, he has shown more upside than Wentz this season. I’m rooting for Wentz, but I’m going to keep picking good teams over him until he starts piling up victories over respectable teams. This is a game Indianapolis should win on paper, as they have less holes related to injury, but Lamar has been more consistent. That isn’t to say I’ll gladly swallow my prognosis if Wentz wins this weekend.
Titans vs. Jaguars: Jaguars
This game is a perfect storm, at least for me. Titans proved they’re capable of losing to a bad team last week against the Jets, and Urban Meyer, in the immortal words of Al Michaels, “is coming off of a worse week than Harvey Weinstein.”In that regard, I sense desperation from Duval County. They’re being tested. It’s well documented that I have no faith in Urban Meyer as an NFL coach and that I have no faith in the Jaguars as a team. However, pressure either forms diamonds or busts pipes. For some reason, I’m looking to Jacksonville to do the former.
Broncos vs. Steelers: Broncos
I have no idea what to think of these two. Are the Broncos frauds? Are the Steelers on the verge of collapse? How am I supposed to predict what happens between two teams that I can’t begin to evaluate? I’ll say Steelers are going to win because Denver has yet to beat a respectable team. Then again, 1-3 is hardly respectable for the Steelers, so Denver could still pull it off. In fact, give me Denver in a low-scoring bout.
Saints vs. Football Team: Football Team
This game is going to be close, but I think the difference is how Heinecke performed vs the Bills and how Winston performed against Carolina. Though both ended in losses, Heinecke at least put together a respectable performance vs. a top defense in the NFL (though he did throw two picks). Both teams are arguably overrated with question marks at quarterback, so it’s hard to say definitively that one is better than another.
Eagles vs. Panthers: Panthers
My poor Birds. Philadelphia is getting a couple of breaks this week. Stephon Gilmore isn’t coming off PUP until next week, Jaycee Horn was injured a couple of weeks ago, and Christian McCaffrey is currently doubtful. However, I doubt it’s going to matter. The Eagles have shot themselves in the foot too many times over the past few weeks to put any stake in them besides the emotional variety. In the same year as the Phillies set the record for the most blown saves in a season, the Eagles are also on pace to be the most penalized team in NFL history. That’s without considering the extra game. Unfortunately, this team is undisciplined, and it keeps coming back to bite them. Week after week after week.
Bears vs. Raiders: Raiders
Bears versus Raiders. Also known as the Khalil Mack Bowl. Unfortunately for Mack, Vegas has been doing very well this year. I don’t anticipate this ending well for Chicago, as their roster is simply outmatched. Quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, head coach. Chicago admittedly has a better defense, but so do the Dolphins; Steelers; and Ravens.
Browns vs. Chargers: Chargers
No, it’s not just because I have the Chargers defense in fantasy. For anyone who missed the news, Baker Mayfield has a torn labrum in his throwing arm. In fact, the injury happened back in week two. In week three and four combined, Mayfield scored 26 and 14 points and threw for 301 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. The passing game will likely not be too big of a threat, so the Browns offense will likely live or die this week on the back of the run game/RPOs. To be honest, it will be an uphill battle from start to end. If the Browns get behind down two scores or so, best of luck asking Baker Mayfield to get you back in the game with a torn labrum.
49ers vs. Cardinals: Cardinals
Arizona is absolutely on fire right now. Meanwhile, San Francisco is starting a rookie quarterback that nobody has any idea whether he’ll be good or not. I wish Lance the best, but for all I know, he could go out and throw three picks. If San Francisco were facing a lesser team, I’d say that they would be able to win purely because of the discrepancy in coaching and team makeup. If the 49ers win, however, a lot of people are going to be looking Trey’s way. Now, and in the foreseeable future.
Subscribe to our posts and bookmark these feeds:
* * *
Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
