A surprising amount of teams are still in the playoff hunt despite playing extremely mediocre. There are 16 teams in the NFC and only 5 are above .500, and somehow 3 of those are in the NFC East. This feels like the most wide open the league has been in a while. That makes picking games difficult to predict, but with the right mindset and enough experience, even the toughest picks become clear.
Locks
Steelers (+9.5) Vs. Eagles (-9.5): Eagles
I don’t know how we got here (yes I do), but the Eagles are one of the best teams in the league and Mike Tomlin is en route to his first losing season as a head coach. Okay, that one is surprising, considering he kept that streak alive bouncing between Mason Rudolph and Devlin “Duck” Hodges in 2020. Pittsburgh’s only hope of winning is their defense, but the Eagles are no strangers to cracking great defenses wide open (see last week vs. the Cowboys).
Bears (+10.0) Vs. Cowboys (-10.0): Cowboys
Okay, I hate to say it, but this is an easy one. The Bears couldn’t even beat the Commanders, who just beat the Packers, who own the Bears. So, by transitive property, it’s safe to say that Chicago is going to be in for a long day against that Dallas defense. Justin Fields needs more time to grow, but I’m not even sure he can do that with Chicago.
Safe Picks
Patriots (-1.5) Vs. Jets (+1.5): Jets
The Jets are one of the teams who made me realize we’re essentially watching football from the 1990s minus the physicality: a lot of pretty mediocre quarterbacks being buoyed by strong defense and running backs carrying the brunt of the offense. Zach Wilson is towards the bottom of the league in passer rating yet still boasts a 4-0 record somehow.
Other Picks
Broncos (+2.5) Vs. Jaguars (-2.5): Jaguars
After starting strong, the Jaguars have dropped four straight. If there’s any game to get right, it’s against one of the few offenses in the league that can cure insomnia. As long as Trevor Lawrence doesn’t throw a back-breaking INT in the red zone and Jacksonville can stop the run (which shouldn’t be hard with guys like Josh Allen and Travon Walker), they’ll be fine.
Raiders (+1.5) Vs. Saints (-1.5): Raiders
This is one of those happy moments where bias and objectivity lead me to the same conclusion: the Raiders are winning. New Orleans has no quarterback, injuries to key players (see Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Marshon Lattimore), and could quite possibly be without a head coach. Obviously, I want the Raiders to win so their draft pick can get us Will Anderson, but at the end of the day, I have to be objective… Raiders by 50. Side note: how are the Saints favored?!
Dolphins (-3.0) Vs. Lions (+3.0): Dolphins
About a month ago, I’d be frothing at the mouth over this matchup. Tua was playing like a top 5 QB and Detroit had one of the best offenses in the league. Now, I’m looking at this game and kinda shrugging my shoulders. With Amon Ra St. Brown and Deandre Swift questionable, I’ll give this one to Miami, especially with how much better Miami’s weapons are (even if they’re a bit banged up).
Cardinals (+6.0) Vs. Vikings (-6.0): Vikings
I’ve noticed that warm-weather teams oft don’t play well in cold-weather environments. Kyler and Hopkins could make this game interesting, but I don’t like to take chances when I don’t need to. I’d like for Minnesota to lose to give the Eagles a more comfortable grip of the one seed, but like a lot of teams this year, Arizona hasn’t been that impressive. Plus, Kirk’s been playing differently since he got his chain.
Panthers (+6.5) Vs. Falcons (-6.5): Falcons
In any other division, these two teams would be on the verge of a tank. Heck, I’m pretty sure Carolina is mortgaging their future in exchange for picks (see Christian McCaffrey). They’ll be going full rebuild soon with Matt Corral, or perhaps someone else, as QB1, while Atlanta has outperformed expectations despite their records. Well, my expectations, at least.
Titans (-3.5) Vs. Texans (+3.5): Texans
I was tempted to take Tennessee here, and I think it’ll be exciting to see Malik Willis making his first career start, but even with Derrick Henry in the backfield, I don’t know what costly mistakes Willis is going to make to set his team back.
Giants (+2.5) Vs. Seahawks (-2.5): Seahawks
The only contest this week starring two teams with a winning record is the Giants and Seahawks. Of course, we all predicted this when the schedule was released. The question is which of the two teams with great running backs and surprisingly decent QBs, whose clock strikes midnight first? I say New York’s since there’s overall less support around Daniel Jones apart from Saquon Barkley.
Commanders (+5.5) Vs. Colts (-5.5): Colts
I’m going to be a bit bold and call this a trap game for the Commanders (yes, for the Commanders). Matt Ryan was recently benched for Sam Ehlinger for the rest of the season. In part due to performance, in part due to a shoulder strain. So theoretically, Ehlinger coming into his first start of the season could be unprepared, but Ehlinger has Shaq Leonard and Jonathan Taylor. These two players were mostly responsible for the 9 wins the Colts last season.
49ers (+2.5) Vs. Rams (-2.5): 49ers
I’m glad Stafford got his ring because his play this year has not been pretty. Say what you will about Garoppolo, but at least he’s stable as a QB and isn’t prone to throw ugly pick sixes. If the right version of Matt Stafford shows up, I’d like LA, but I like to know the horse I’m putting my money behind.
Packers (+8.5) Vs. Bills (-8.5): Bills
Ignoring for a moment that Green Bay has never won at Buffalo in their team’s history, Green Bay just doesn’t have the team to do it this year, let alone the QB. The reason this year feels so weird is because, as Rodgers shows, the old guard is falling and young franchise QBs are rising to take their place. Perhaps Rodgers can rediscover his old firm and pull off a miracle against a top 3 team in the league, but I doubt it, as narratives gave yet to save him this year.
Bengals (-2.5) Vs. Browns (+2.5): Bengals
While division games are normally fun upset bait, I’m cautious against choosing Cleveland over Cincinnati, even with the absence of Ja’Marr Chase. The Cincinnati offense might not have been anything near what it was without Chase before 2021, BUT I believe the deal breaker here, as it often is, is the QB.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
