Congratulations to everyone who made it this far. Though there was a large amount of mediocrity this season, the lack of a clear favorite arguably encapsulates the full beauty of the sport. Anybody can beat anybody any week. For better or for worse, this lack of a clearly superior team has bled into the playoffs. Apart from one or two games, there’s a lack of sense that one team can’t beat another. If that’s not bad enough, half of my picks go against Vegas. Wish me luck.
Locks
Steelers (+12.5) vs. Chiefs (-12.5): Chiefs
The Steelers snuck into the playoffs thanks to a walk-off field goal against the Ravens’ practice squad and Indianapolis having the biggest choke of the season (if there’s a close second, let me know). The worst that Kansas City has been all season is mediocre. In fact, in the past five weeks, the Chiefs scored 28 points at a minimum since Dec. 12. Meanwhile, in that same time, the Steelers have scored a maximum of 28 points. I hate to tell you guys, but the Chiefs are back. They have been since week thirteen.
Safe Picks
Raiders (+5.5) vs. Bengals (-5.5): Bengals
The Raiders made it into the playoffs in much more dramatic fashion than the Steelers. In fact, the Raiders probably made the playoffs in the most dramatic fashion out of anyone in the playoffs. Good thing, too, because I went to bat for Carr this year (who, unlike Wentz, rewarded my faith with a playoff berth). It would be wild to see Carr go on a run after everything the Raiders have been through this season. Unfortunately, the NFL is a merciless business that doesn’t care about each team’s issues (the Broncos were forced to play with a wide receiver at QB last game). With that in mind, this game will be determined by the difference makers, and I think Cincinnati’s playmakers are better than Vegas’. Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow are the two biggest reasons the Bengals are in the playoffs right now, but the Raiders have the 19th best run defense in the league. The Raiders should make things interesting with their own three-headed monster of Carr-Jacobs-Waller, but I just feel like the Bengals are too much. What’s more, for what it’s worth, the Bengals beat the Chiefs, a team that swept the Raiders this season.
49ers (+3.0) vs. Cowboys (-3.0): 49ers
For a minute, I thought this matchup was going to be clear-cut in favor of Dallas until I found a Mina Kimes stat that potentially saved me from making a mistake. I didn’t realize how favorably San Francisco matched up against Dallas. I was mostly joking when I said this would be the 2018 Cowboys-Rams divisional matchup all over again, but after finding a relatively obscure, system-specific stat, I am able to fill myself with optimism that the Cowboys will choke in the biggest moment, as they tend to do. I tend to get 75% of picks right in a weekend, but I’d gladly go 1/6 on every other pick if it meant the Cowboys had an early exit.
Other Picks
Cardinals (+4.0) vs. Rams (-4.0): Cardinals
Similar to Carr, Stafford is a guy I feel bad for because he hasn’t gotten the recognition he deserves by people who only look at wins and losses. That tends to happen when you play in Detroit for 10+ years, but just like Carr, Stafford has a chance to make all of those years of being underrated behind him. All he has to do is beat a team that has free-falled during the end of the season and lost six of ten. There’s just one problem, though: Stafford has had a bad habit of turning the ball over in weeks past. Whether the Rams win all depends on #9 taking care of the pigskin. If not, it’ll be a slow roast.
Eagles (+8.5) vs. Buccaneers (-8.5): Eagles
I was inclined to go with the Buccaneers for this matchup because I sadly trust Tom Brady more than our defense. Our linebackers can’t stop tight ends and Brady-Gronk is one of the greatest connections in the past twenty years. Everyone is joking that since the Eagles aren’t wearing black pants, the Eagles are going to lose, but Philadelphia has a couple of things going for them. The weather is making it look like it’s going to be a run-heavy matchup. The Eagles are the #1 rushing attack in the NFL, in part due to the QB. Behind Leonard Fournette, the Bucs #2 running back is Ronald Jones, who has a bad case of fumblitis, which earned him a spot in the dog house earlier in this season. In a game where the strength of the running game will be the determining factor, I (possibly foolishly) trust the versatility in Philadelphia’s rushing offense more than Tampa’s.
Patriots (+4.5) vs. Bills (-4.5): Patriots
Oh yay, a divisional rivalry that somehow found its way sneaking into the playoffs. I’m so glad that these are the easiest to predict and never have anything unexpected happen (he said with absolutely no sarcasm). This game is made even harder to predict because the first of two matchups between these teams was played in 55-MPH winds. Given that Devin Singletary is the Bills’ #1 running back (no disrespect, but he’s not exactly a star), this game is contingent on how Josh Allen plays for the Bills. Look away Bills fans, but according to NESN.com/best, “Josh Allen has a career 54.3 passer rating when the temperature is 32 degrees or colder.” I rarely weaponize weather in my picks articles, as I much prefer looking at how each team has performed, but for one reason or another, I just have a bad feeling about this game for Buffalo, despite them being favored.
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Dylan Patrowicz is a featured writer at The Birds Blitz. For more from Dylan, check out his archive and read through our Eagles articles for the latest news about the Birds.
